Best Chance at an Upset

[Big Sexy]

Right now in the NBA playoffs there are three second round series where the road team has won the opening game. The 8 seed Grizzlies beat the 4 seed Thunder, the 3 seed Mavericks beat the 2 seed Lakers, and the 5 seed Hawks beat the one seed Bulls. So I ask you, which team has the best chance at an upset? All three could very well pull it off but I'm going to put them in order from most likely to least likely.

1. Memphis- The Thunder are still a relatively young and inexperienced playoff team so while they had the home court advantage that may have been one of the only advantages they had. The Grizzlies are on fire right now and Zach Randolph is showing why he may very well be the best power forward in the NBA. The Thunder have the best player in the series but as a team the Grizzlies are playing better. Memphis continues to dominate inside even though the Thunder have more then enough talented bigs to prevent that.

2. Dallas- This Mavs team isn't like the ones that have been playoff failures in the past. They are a much tougher team and also much better defensively then previous years. The addition of Tyson Chandler was a big one this off season. Their bench has also improved and last night they got great production from Jason Terry, JJ Barea, and even Peja Stojakovic. The Lakers are more then capable of losing a game 1 and coming back to dominate the series but this Dallas team is much better then the Hornets and anytime Dirk is playing at his best you can't afford to give up home court.

3.Atlanta- I, along with many people, underrated the Hawks and overrated the Bulls coming into the playoffs because of how they finished the regular season. The playoffs are a different animal and the experience factor plays a big role. Many of the Bulls players have never gone past the first round and the team as a unit has almost no playoff experience. The Hawks have gone to the playoffs 4 straight years with pretty much the same team and they've gone to the second round the last 3 years. They have a huge experience edge and they aren't afraid of the Bulls. Chicago seems to still be in regular season mode and they need to step up the intensity or they could be in trouble. It's just one game but this needs to be a wake up call for the Bulls.

Thoughts?

 

[People's Champ]

I'm torn between Memphis and Atlanta. The Bulls are showing their inexperience, and Rose's injury may become a factor. But I'm leaning more towards the Grizzlies. The combo of Randolph and Gasol are just killing it right. They are on a tear and there is no reason to think they are just going to cool down. Perkins is going to have to step up if they are going to have a chance, and while I think he may show up tonight, I still think Memphis is just too good right now and moves on. They are certainly not playing like an 8 seed.

 

[Jay Sherman]

Simple. Dallas because I am a fan so there. Seriously though.

Kidd and Dirk.
Careers of both of the future Hall of Fame players Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki are coming to an end. J. Kidd's in his 16th (I belive) year in the league, and Dirk is in his 12th. Both men have been to the finals before sadly came up short. Both you have to feel desperately want at least one NBA championship ring to sport on their hands and will pull out that extra gas in there tanks.

Defense.
Its an obvious thing but I will say it anyways, defense always wins championships. Now usually the Mavs have zero so D. Personally though I think Dallas is playing D perfectly this season, allowing for 96.3 points a game, which is 10th overall in the league. New center Tyson Chandler has been the key for this difference. He is amazing on the floor, the big guy gives the Mavericks some much-needed consistent D and toughness.

 

[The Holy One]

I'll have to agree that the Grizzlies have the best chance at an upset. They've been on a roll since the All Star break and the team of Randolph/Gasol have been unstoppable up to this point. Unless Perkins and the rest of the Thunder bigs can somehow slow those two down, the Grizzlies could be looking at a trip to the West Finals.

However, I think the Hawks have a better chance than the Mavericks. The Bulls have not showed a playoff intensity and urgency except for Game 5 vs the Pacers so far. Rose's ankle could be hurtful as he was already playing softly as he didn't have no trips to the foul line and now that he's retweaked it that could slow him down even more. As long as the Hawks continue to play smart and get good looks unlike the past 3 years they do have a good chance at pulling the upset again.

We have already seen this from Lakers though. From Houston two years ago to the Hornets last series, the Lakers can lose game 1 and still come back to win the series. They unlike the Bulls know what it's like to face adversity and overcome it. Not to say that the Mavericks aren't capable of winning b/c they certainly aren't the same and Dirk is a bad matchup for any Laker guarding him. I feel that the Lakers experience make them have a better chance than the Bulls at winning the series.

 

[People's Champ]

Simple. Dallas because I am a fan so there. Seriously though.

Kidd and Dirk.
Careers of both of the future Hall of Fame players Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki are coming to an end. J. Kidd's in his 16th (I belive) year in the league, and Dirk is in his 12th. Both men have been to the finals before sadly came up short. Both you have to feel desperately want at least one NBA championship ring to sport on their hands and will pull out that extra gas in there tanks.

Defense.
Its an obvious thing but I will say it anyways, defense always wins championships. Now usually the Mavs have zero so D. Personally though I think Dallas is playing D perfectly this season, allowing for 96.3 points a game, which is 10th overall in the league. New center Tyson Chandler has been the key for this difference. He is amazing on the floor, the big guy gives the Mavericks some much-needed consistent D and toughness.

While this may be the vulnerable the Lakers have been during their championship run, I still don't see the Mavs winning. Jackson will make the adjustments needed, like putting Odom on Dirk rather than Gasol. I still think the Lakers have the more talented team, and Kobe will make sure they play to the level they are capable of. Look for Gasol and Odom to have big games and the Lakers will eventually take control of this series.

 

[Big Sexy]

I put the Mavs as a better chance over the Hawks but barely. There are a few reasons why. Firstly, Dirk Nowitzki is one of the toughest guys to match up against in the NBA. The only guy I could see consistently covering him is Lamar Odom and if they are playing Odom on Dirk then that means they are sitting either Gasol or Bynum which weakens them inside. Secondly, the Mavs for the first time in a while have no pressure. They came into the playoffs as a 3 seed and most picked them to be upset in the first round. Finally, even though the Lakers have been through this situation many times before and have overcome it pretty much every single time, eventually it could bite them in the ass. I still think the Lakers will win the series but they need to be careful.

With the Hawks, I just have trouble buying into them being able to finish the series off. They have a ton of talent and I could easily see this going 7 games but until they prove they can win a series like this against an elite team, I just can't put them higher on the list. Again, they are more then capable of the upset but this is why I have them slightly below the Mavs.

 

[The Holy One]

"Don't trust the Hawks", that's been a familar saying for the past few years in the playoffs and rightfully so. Yet, I somehow feel different this year maybe it's Johnson finally playing up to that ridiculous contract, Smith not having retarted shot selections, or Teague finally getting a chance to show what he can do. I also feel Chicago's reliance on Rose will eventually be their downfall and it showed last night when he took the most shots on the team yet was only 24 points for 11-27.

I do believe the Lakers have no answer for Dirk other than Odom which would put them at a major disadvantage. Yet, as long as Gasol and Bynum are able to contribute, I feel Kobe can take the Lakers past the Mavericks.

 

[Big Sexy]

I figured I'd revisit this thread because of the three teams trying to pull off the upset, the Mavs were the only team to take a 2-0 lead. ATL and Memphis are still looking solid after taking home court but I'd say Dallas definitely has the best chance as of right now to pull off the upset. Dallas isn't an easy place to play and they have all the confidence in the world. I know the Lakers can't beat them 4 times in a row and even 3 times is unlikely so LA needs to focus on taking both games in Dallas which is easier said then done.