2013 NFL Draft Predictions

[Cena's Little Helper]

Not only are the NFL playoffs upon us; it's also that special time of year where we get to imagine how the league's worst teams will meet their needs in the off-season. Here are my predictions for the top five picks in this year's NFL draft:

1) Kansas City Chiefs take Geno Smith, WVU QB: This is a horrible year to have to the number one pick. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, Jadeveon Clowney, the once-in-a-lifetime DE/OLB prospect from South Carolina, can't enter this year's draft. While their pass-rushing needs are already met with perennial Pro Bowler Tamba Hali, Clowney's the rare kind of non-QB/WR/LT that teams would offer a king's ransom for. So, due to the success of Russell Wilson, RG3, and Cam Newton, they end up taking the inconsistent but sometimes brilliant Geno Smith from WVU.

2) Jacksonville Jaguars take Jarvis Jones, Georgia DE/OLB: Blaine Gabbert's garbage but taking any other QB at this point in the draft would be pointless; Matt Barkley can be had in the second round and Landry Jones will probably be available in the third. With Jarvis Jones, the Jags get a player comparable to Von Miller: an all-around great 4-3 OLB who can still rush the passer.

3) TRADE: The Oakland Raiders trade their third pick for the St. Louis Rams' two first-round picks, the Rams take Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M OT: The Rams need a frachise LT BADLY. The Eagles' offensive line is just as offensive as the Rams' so Jeff Fisher's going to have to trade-up here if he wants the best OT prospect in the draft.

4) Philadelphia Eagles take Star Lotulelei, Utah DT/NT: The Eagles have so many holes to fill this year and their next head coach is going to have to go into full rebuild mode. Since there's so many needs on the roster, I am just going to assume a best player available philosophy here.

5) Detroit Lions take Damontre Moore, Texas A&M DE/OLB: The Lions' front-office always seems to employ the best available player strategy. With Moore, they get an awesome pass-rush prospect who will be a step up over any DE they have right now.

 

[Megatron]

Truthfully I hope the Lions can trade back into the teens and gain another pick. They've spent a few too many picks on trade ups and need some depth. I only watched a little bit of the Senior Bowl but the guy that stood out was BYU's DE Ezekiel Ansah. The guy is still really raw having only played 3 years of football total (and only one as a starter) but he's got a motor and probably played his way into top 10 discussion. There are a lot of D-line/3-4 OLB Pass Rushers at the top of this draft and I've seen Jarvis Jones been projected by some to the Lions (which I'm not a huge fan of because he has a little bit of health issues and Lions don't like to blitz their LBs anyways but maybe that'd cause a change) but I do think putting Ansah on the line with Suh and Fairley (who'd take double teams off of him) would really pay off.

If the Lions could trade back to say Tampa at 13 (so Tampa could try to get Millner) or St. Louis at 16 (if Joeckel doesn't go to Philly at 4, although that hasn't been likely according to most mocks) and gain a 2nd, 4th, and late round I'd be a happy camper.

 

[agentmichaelscarn]

Truthfully I hope the Lions can trade back into the teens and gain another pick. They've spent a few too many picks on trade ups and need some depth. I only watched a little bit of the Senior Bowl but the guy that stood out was BYU's DE Ezekiel Ansah. The guy is still really raw having only played 3 years of football total (and only one as a starter) but he's got a motor and probably played his way into top 10 discussion. There are a lot of D-line/3-4 OLB Pass Rushers at the top of this draft and I've seen Jarvis Jones been projected by some to the Lions (which I'm not a huge fan of because he has a little bit of health issues and Lions don't like to blitz their LBs anyways but maybe that'd cause a change) but I do think putting Ansah on the line with Suh and Fairley (who'd take double teams off of him) would really pay off.

If the Lions could trade back to say Tampa at 13 (so Tampa could try to get Millner) or St. Louis at 16 (if Joeckel doesn't go to Philly at 4, although that hasn't been likely according to most mocks) and gain a 2nd, 4th, and late round I'd be a happy camper.

As a Lions fan I agree. Even though I love Jarvis Jones and think he is going to be a stud, I don't want the Lions drafting him because I know if they do his medical condition is going to comeback to haunt them. So as good as I think he will be he is not worth the risk. If they can get Moore than I'd be down to keep the pick but I don't think that is going to happen. Other than him I don't think there is anybody worthy of selecting with that high of pick for the Lions. I think they would be much better off trading back and picking up some extra picks.

 

[Megatron]

Actually if Joeckel dropped to them at 5 I think I'd jump on that in an instant. Joeckels been highly regarded as one of the best LT prospects since Joe Thomas. Having him on the left side and Reiff on the right side would solidify their line for the next 9-10 years. Then, if he was available, go after Barrett Jones in the second round to take Peterman's or Raiola's spot at Guard or tackle. Their line is getting old and needs some new blood. If they go BPA and get those two in the first two rounds I won't complain because may as well address some needs. I don't think that'll happen, but I do think they'll get an o-lineman with one of their first two picks. They also will need to get a speed back late and probably another slot receiver since Titus is an idiot. Ace Sanders from South Carolina is a guy who I think has that gamebreaking ability who'll be available in the 3rd round.

 

[Big Sexy]

There's no way Joeckel falls to the Lions. If KC doesn't take him at one then he isn't going to get past Philly at 4. If Dee Milliner falls to the Lions then that has to be the pick. They have had problems in the secondary for years and have not had a legitimate number one corner since Dre Bly. Since then they haven't been able to find a number one corner in free agency and they haven't used a first round pick on one since Terry Fair in 1998. The secondary is easily their biggest weakness and Milliner can come in right away and help. If Bill Bentley can come back strong from his injury then he and Milliner could turn into a good corner tandem. If Milliner isn't there then I wouldn't mind them trading down. This draft is stacked with pass rushers with first round talent. They can trade down to get one while at the same time stockpiling some extra picks. Another option if they trade down would be the top safety in the draft, Kenny Vaccaro.

 

[Megatron]

I said I don't think Joeckel would fall to the Lions, but look at all of the teams in front of the Lions and their QB sitation. KC - definitely need a QB. Jacksonville - more than likely need a QB. Oakland - Need a QB. Philly - likely need a QB. Will they all draft a QB with the first 4 picks? Obviously not. Could two of them reach for a QB? I think there's a good chance. Geno is the consensus top QB and I doubt he drops past 4. Glennon has been moving up mocks from what I've seen and even Tyler Wilson and Matt Barkley have been in a top 10 or two. Are they top 10 talents? No. But neither was Christian Ponder (okay he was 12 close enough), Gabbert, Locker, or Tannehill, but need pushes QBs up.

It's hard to imagine a scenario where Joeckel falls to 5, especially if KC takes Smith. If it does, though, the Lions should jump on it right away. That's what I was saying.

As for a little more realistic option for them at #5, I still think you go D-line before you go DB. KVB sucks and Avril may not be resigned. You're gonna trust Willie Young and Lo-Jack as your DE's? No thanks. DBs are needed, but they went and drafted 3 last year. Plus there's usually a lot of DBs that go in the 2nd and 3rd round. Get one then. Not with the #5. If they get back to 13 or 16 and Millner or Vacarro is there fine, but not with 5. I'd still go with a DE at 13 or 16 just because a good D-line can make a secondary look better than what it is, but if some of their more desired targets are gone by then and they really like one of those two fine.

 

[Big Sexy]

Milliner is easily a top 10 corner prospect and the Lions can't just keep hoping a second, third, or fourth round guy pans out as a number one corner and they definitely don't have enough money to go and get one in free agency. Defensive end may be the deepest position in this draft and there could easily be guys with first round talent falling to the second round. You can't say the same about the defensive backs in this draft. Corner is also their biggest need. Just like with Avril, there's no guarantee that Chris Houston or Jacob Lacey will be back next year. DE is a big need as well but I'm more comfortable with Willie Young, Lawrence Jackson, and Ronnell Lewis then I am with Bill Bentley and Jonte Green. If Milliner is there it needs to be him in the first and then take the best of the remaining D ends at the top of the second.

 

[Cena's Little Helper]

Combine Update:

All right, here are my projected top 10 picks after the combine:

1)Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M to the Chiefs: Even with the Brandon Albert franchise tag, this is pretty much a done deal. KC has no need for a QB since they just (overpaid) for Alex Smith with a 2nd rounder and another conditional draft pick (might be karma for Andy Reid screwing over so many teams in the past with his QB duds), they have no need for a stud OLB, and they have no need for a stud WR after inking Dwayne Bowe to a new deal. While KC definitely has interior-line and secondary needs, they'd be insane to waste a number one overall pick on solving those problems. Since no one is wanting to trade up in such a weak draft class, KC goes with Joeckel, the draft's best overall player.

2) Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida to the Jaguars: This is probably the hardest pick to predict right now given how many needs the Jaguars have. I am completely confident that Gus Bradfley is going to go defense for this pick but it's hard to tell if he'll go for a stout lineman or a pure pass-rusher. The best pass-rush prospect in this draft, Bjoern Werner, is more of a traditional 4-3 DE and thus won't fit perfectly into Bradley's hybrid defense. While Damontre Moore would have fit perfectly into Bradley's defense, his poor combine showing has greatly affected his draft stock. A lot of mock drafts have Dion Jordan in this spot but I'm wary to put him here due to injury concerns (he's definitely going top 10 though due to his combine). By process of elimination, I go with the most versatile and arguably the best defensive lineman available in the draft.

3) Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah to the Raiders: This is a no-brainer. Tommy Kelly sucks and Richard Seymour is a grossly-overpaid defensive tackle nearing the end of his prime.

4) Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon to the Eagles: Jordan goes to play for his former coach who is changing the Eagles defense from a 4-3 to 3-4. Yeah, it's a pretty dumb move in my opinion (even dumber when you think that they cut Cullen Jenkins, an experience 3-4 DE). The Eagles may do the smart thing here and take Eric Fisher, but Kelly's created more needs than he can fill with his defensive switch.

5) Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan to the Lions: Detroit's front office always goes with the best player available and there's no question that it's Fisher. Fisher had an excellent combine relative to Joeckel and, relative to Riley Reiff, Fisher is a much better right tackle and future-left tackle prospect. It should be noted here that Oklahoma's Lane Johnson performed better than both Joeckel and Fisher at the combine. I am not predicting him here (or higher) because of his relative inexperience.

6) Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU to the Browns: The Browns are again switching to the 3-4 so they'll need a solid pass-rush prospect who fits the mold of a 3-4 OLB. The Browns could go DeMarcus Milliner here but Joe Haden's a beast and they need to concentrate on their defensive base.

7) Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma to the Cardinals: The Cardinals need a left tackle AND they need a QB, stat. This is a tough one to project. Given his awesome combine, I think the Cardinals take Johnson here and go for a Barkley in the second-round since there's not enough of a talent differential to justify taking Geno Smith in the first and losing out on an amazing LT prospect. That being said, if the Cardinals take Geno Smith, look for the Rams to trade up with the Bills to take Johnson.

8) Geno Smith, QB, WVU to the Bills: The Bills need a franchise QB, Smith is the best QB available in the draft, you can fit the puzzle pieces together.

9) DeMarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama to the Jets: If Revis leaves then this is going to be the fastest selection in the NFL draft's history.

10) Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington to the Titans: The Titans have ties to the Huskies, they need help in the secondary, and Trufant amazed at the combine. They might go with an interior lineman with this pick but I think the signs all point to Trufant going to Tennessee.

 

[Big Sexy]

Here's my top 5 at this point:

1. Kansas City: Sharrif Floyd- After franchising Brandon Albert and addressing their quarterback need by picking up Alex Smith, I think the Chiefs go with defense. Lotulelei was once the consensus top DT but his health concern and the emergence of Floyd late in the season and early in the draft process has propelled the Florida product slightly ahead of him in my book. Floyd is a fit as a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE.

2. Jacksonville: Luke Joeckel- The Jaguars desperately need pass rush help but their offense line also needs a lot of improvement. Joeckel provides more value then any pass rusher at this point.

3. Oakland: Star Lotulelei- The Raiders have a ton of needs and Lotulelei is regarded by many as the top player in the entire draft. Defensive tackle is one of the Raiders biggest needs and Lotulelei should come in right away and start immediately.

4. Philadelphia: Eric Fisher- The Eagles have a need in the secondary and obviously DE/OLB Dion Jordan makes some sense with Chip Kelly as the new head coach and the Eagles defense switching to a 3-4, but they are only going to go as far as the offense takes them. That offense has an atrocious line and Eric Fisher can be the anchor to protect Michael Vick from taking big hits and cut down on his turnovers. The Central Michigan University product is a beast. Fire Up Chips.

5. Detroit: Dee Milliner- The Lions current regime is known for taking the best player available and while that has been successful for the most part, it has also created some big needs. This year they get to kill two birds with one stone. Corner is their biggest need and Milliner will be the best player available. This pick could give the Lions their first legitimate number one corner since Dre Bly.

 

[Big Sexy]

After making my last post I found out that the Chiefs cut starting RT Eric Winston. That move changes my top 5 but only slightly. Now I think the Chiefs will draft Joeckel number one to pair with Brandon Albert as bookend tackles and the Jaguars will take the home town Florida product Sharrif Floyd with the number two pick. Essentially my top two picks from the previous post are swapped and everything else stays the same.

 

[Cena's Little Helper]

Here are my updated picks given the moves made in free agency.

1)Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M to the Chiefs: It's going to happen, book it, bet on it.

2) Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida to the Jaguars: There's no change here. Some have Dion Jordan being mocked here but I just can't see the Jags passing up on someone that's drawing comparison to JJ Watt.

3) Dion Jordan, 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB, Oregon to the Raiders: The Raiders have a horrible pass-rush and Star Lotulelei's health problems are too much of a concern even with the Raiders's desparate need for a dominant defensive tackle. Should the Jags opt to move in a different direction with their second pick the Raiders are definitely going with Floyd. If not, look for them to take Jordan as a consolation prize.

4) Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama to the Eagles: The Eagles are going to have one hell of a time over the next two or three years. Not only do they have a porous O-Line but they are also switching to a 3-4 defense and have cut, traded, or lost every single one of their Pro Bowl-caliber corners in the span of two years. The Eagles need to fill so many positions that it just makes sense to go with a best player available strategy here.

5) Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan to the Lions: The Lions just lost their franchise LT and they're still contemplating exactly where to put Reiff. Even without considering whether or not to move Reiff inwards the Lions still have a need for a tackle. Luckily for them, the best player available happens to meet that need.

6) Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU to the Browns: Nothing has changed here.

7) Geno Smith, QB, WVU to the Cardinals: I don't know what the fuck's going on in Arizona but Kolb's gone and its looks like both the Eagles and the Cardinals lost on that trade. With one of the three best receivers in the game not getting any younger, the Cardinals NEED a franchise QB.

8) Matt Barkley, QB, USC to the Bills: It's a HUGE reach to draft Barkley this early but the Bills are in the unenviable position of drafting just behind another QB need team. A lot of mocks have no other QBs being taken in the first round but I think a lot of teams will look to trade up into the late first round to nab Naseib and Manuel. Besides, the past two drafts have shown that teams are willing to reach for a signal-caller: look no further than the Vikings taking Christna Ponder at 12 in 2011 and the Dolphins taking Ryan Tannehill at 8 last year.

9) Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee to the Jets: The Jets take a big, dominant receiver here and look to phase out Sanchez by trading up to the late first round for either Manuel or Nassib.

10) Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU to the Titans: The Titans need a CB and it's a toss-up between Rhodes and Trufant. I think Rhodes is a more multi-dimensional talent so the Titans take him here a number 10.

 

[Cena's Little Helper]

Updated due to the Carson Palmer trade and Star Lotulelei's health clearance:

1)Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M to the Chiefs: Don't buy into the Chiefs meeting with Geno Smith. It's just ol' Andy Reid trying to pull a fast one on some QB needy team. Brandon Albert has no fucking clue what the Chiefs plan on doing with him which lends further support to my (and almost everyone else's) prediction.

2) Dion Jordan, 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB, Oregon to the Jaguars: Given some of his health issues I was wary to put Jordan here, but there are three factors that have changed my mind. One, mock drafter extraordinaire Mike Mayock has stated that Jordan could be the next Aldon Smith, a pass rusher new Jaguars HC/former Seahawks DC Gus Bradley is all too familiar with. Two, the Jaguars had the worst pass-rush in the league last year. Three, only one DT/3-4 DE has been taken in the first two picks in the NFL draft since 2000, and Ndamukong Suh was considered a once-in-a-decade prospect. Yes, this is a weak draft class and the Jaguars may or may not be realigning their defense to some kind of hybrid (it was hybrid when Jack Del Rio was HC and I have no clue if Mike Mularkey changed it or not) but the facts are the facts. Unless something miraculous happens or the Jags trade down (something I don't think they'll do since Jordan would be a legitimate top 5 prospect in any draft class), this pick is going to be Jordan.

3) Sharriff Floyd, DT/3-4 DE, to the Raiders: With the loss of Richard Seymour, the Raiders need a defensive tackle badly. While I mentioned Floyd drawing comparisons to J.J. Watt in my previous post, I've watched some Floyd highlights and I just don't see it. This is probably because Watt is great as either a 3-tech or 5-tech DE position while Floyd looks like he'll only excel as a 3-tech DT/DE. It's ultimately because of this that the Jags will pass on Floyd and he'll be welcome with open arms by the Raiders.

4) Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan to the Lions: Chip Kelly's tenure so far is not looking so great. He's lost two Pro-Bowl CBs and stated his intentions to switch to a 3-4 even though he lacks the personnel to do so. Furthermore, he also has to address things on the offensive side of the ball. Since the Eagles are now in desparate need of everything, I think they go with the best player available and take Fisher.

5) Ezekiel Ansah, 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB, BYU to the Lions: This is a tough one to predict. The Lions no longer have their pair of starting DEs from last year but they've always employed a best player available strategy when it comes to the draft. Obviously, the latter would involve them drafting Dee Milliner instead of Ansah. Right now I'm going to go with Ansah since I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the Lions and Browns will swap spots, thus making Ansah the best player available at number 6.

6) Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama to the Browns: I totally forgot in my last post that the Browns made just heavily invested in free agent Paul Kruger. Given that they now have a solid pass-rusher, the Browns use this pick to take Milliner, thus pairing him with Joe Haden to make a potentially dangerous duo.

7) Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma to the Cardinals: The Raiders just traded Carson Palmer to the Cardinals for virtually nothing more than a ham sandwich. The Cardinals will definitely use an early second rounder or move up into the late first round to draft one of the many QB projects, but they use their first pick to shore up a porous O-line.

8) Geno Smith, QB, WVU to the Bills: Going to happen now that Carson Palmer is a Cardinal.

9) Star Lotulelei, DT/NT, Utah to the Jets: Lotulelei's health seems to check out now. He would have been a top-three pick without any health scares so the Jets get a tremendous prospect here who happens to fill a need.

10) Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU to the Titans: Nothing has changed here.