Unemployment: At its lowest in 5 years

[LSN80]

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/02/news/economy/unemployment-benefits/

While expecting the opposite, the Labor and Industry Department is reporting that Unemployment claims have fallen 18,000 from last week, although the Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 7.6%. Still, this is seen as a major deal by Economists, as 140,000 jobs were added in April, which is an increase from 88,000 in March.

Are these numbers deceiving? While 'only' 3 million people filed for unemployment during the week of April 20th, as of March, approximately 11.7 million people in the United States are still unemployed.

Personally, I still think it's an encouraging sign. While unemployment benefits have been cut and made more difficult to obtain, the change in number of claims filed now as compared to just 4 short years ago in March. In April, 324,000 filed initial claims. Compare this to March of 2009, when 670,000 people filed initial unemployment claims, and both the loss of jobs and the increase in jobs are a very encouraging sign.

What do you attribute the gain in jobs and decrease in Unemployment to?

Any other thoughts or discussion of the topic is encouraged.

 

[Mustang Sally]

While 'only' 3 million people filed for unemployment during the week of April 20th, as of March, approximately 11.7 million people in the United States are still unemployed.

The raw numbers reported to us might mean something, but the above statement makes me think of that eerie statistic that's come into existence in the past few years: "The number of people who have given up trying to find a job."

Think of it. It's a little more nebulous than numbers reported directly to us from (supposedly) reputable sources, no? Doesn't it seem as if that stat has to come from directly questioning people.....and that the way the inquiry is phrased might influence what the respondent says, and thereby how the survey is interpreted?

If they ask the question: (a) Do you have a job? (b) Are you looking for a job? (c) Have you given up looking for a job because the economy is so bad and how can anyone expect you to support your family when the deck is stacked so badly against you?

How many folks would answer: "Huh? Oh shit, yeah! I'll take (c). Fuck, yeah! I been tryin' my ass off and I can't get nothin', so I'm finished lookin'. Yeah! Fuckin-A!"

To me, it's the same type of strange survey we read about in the papers, in which they conclude "Consumer confidence is down for the 3rd quarter."

Huh? How do they know? They ask the consumer whether he has more or less confidence in the economy? In this instance, it seems if the survey is being conducted by the political party in power (or not), the questioning, and therefore the results, would be vastly different, no? With Democrats in the White House, would a Republican survey ask the person: "Hey, with the way things suck nowadays, you don't have confidence in economy, do you? I mean, you don't, right?"


Okay, I've gotten off the track from the original question about unemployment, but it comes down to the same thing: how is the information gathered....and who's gathering it? What do they want to accomplish by asking? And do you believe what any of 'em are telling us, anyway?

What do you attribute the gain in jobs and decrease in Unemployment to?

Advanced Applied Statistics 101?

 

[HBsam31]

I have mentioned on these forum before that I am a chef, and with that I am always looking for a better job. In my business sometimes in order to get a pay increase you just have to move on as most restaurant owners are tight. That being said I use various outlets in looking for jobs. The Sunday classifieds, craigslist, monster, and so forth. This past Sunday there was not a single listing for a chef job, cook job, or even a dishwashing job. I live in Pittsburgh and we are so saturated with restaurants that I couldn't believe there was not one single job opening anywhere. My guess on this topic is that a lot of people's unemployment has run out, and they have just flat out given up on looking for anything else. I know my business is just a very small percentage of all businesses, but friends of mine have had the same thing. I know a lot of people are going back to school now to try and change careers which I think could factor into this as well. I just saw on the news the night before last that my city has decreased in unemployment. I am not sure of the percentage, but what I see personally and what they are telling us are two vastly different things. I have a feeling these stats are skewed in some way, and my tendency is to agree with Sally that a lot of people have just given up. I am in a job right now that I don't particularly enjoy. It's a good paying chef job, but I hate it. I sure as hell am not giving it up though because as I said I think it would be quite hard to find something else right now.

 

[Jack-Hammer]

I admit that when it comes to finances & things of that nature, I'm not exactly an expert. As much as some hate to admit it, things in the economy do seem to be much better than they have been in quite a while.

I've looked up some information and, if it's correct, then it seems to be very encouraging. In March of this year, the BLS Job Report states that in the past 37 months, no jobs in the private sector have been lost and that there's been continuous job growth in all sectors for the past 30 months. Since 2010 and including the jobs created up to March of this year, over 5.8 million jobs have been created. According to the report, there are roughly 135,195,000 jobs in the United States, which is the most since 2007 and the third highest since 2000.

 

[Cena's Little Helper]

Sally hit the nail on the head with her response and it's exactly what I would've said had I put as much thought into my post as hers. A lot of people have just stopped looking for employment in the ordinary sense. It's going to take at least 7-8 years to get back to where we were before the Great Recession, and it will more realistically take 10-15 years.

 

[Warhood]

These numbers really are just a false look at unemployment. These numbers come from people who are covered by unemployment insurance (or whatever its called. I am tired). The fact is that this insurance only covers 1 year and 11 months of being unemployed and after that it runs out.

If you want to take anything positive out of these numbers is that no more people are being laid off and losing their jobs, because if that was the case, this number would be growing.

It doesn't change the fact though that when I get out of college I probably won't be able to find a job.​

 

[The Butcher]

Job market stayed strong around here even during the worst of it, so I'm not complaining. Good news is good news. I'll take it. May not amount to a whole bunch, but it's better than most headlines. It's easy to look at a report like this with a jaded eye, but taken for what it is it is encouraging.

 

[Lowdown]

One of the things that i consider when I read about unemployment is how many folks have any money saved to start their own endeavor. I wish I could pick up and leave my job and start my own business. But real life hits you and you gotta handle your responsibilities first. But I how unemployment is truly on the decline. My previous manager took a chance on me and I was able to leave my last job which was shitty. Still, it's good to be thankful to be employed at all.