Roy Halladay: Hall of Famer?

[The Brain]

Over the past decade Roy Halladay has been considered to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Going back to last season and into this one it has been obvious that Halladay has not been the pitcher he used to be. Shoulder inflammation has recently forced him to the disabled list and there has been some talk that his career may be coming to an end. I have a feeling Doc will pitch again but what if he’s thrown his last pitch? If Halladay were to retire tomorrow would he end up in the Hall of Fame?

Over the next few years we will see some great pitchers go in the HOF. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Randy Johnson are slam dunk first ballot hall of famers. Pedro Martinez will likely get in. Mike Mussina has a chance. Roger Clemens should already be in. When I think of Halladay I don’t put him quite on the same level as these great pitchers. Maybe I should. I’ve known for years how good Halladay is but for whatever reason I never gave much thought about him as a hall of famer. Maybe he’s not as good as some of the names I mentioned above but he doesn’t have to be to get in the hall. Jim Rice wasn’t as good as Hank Aaron but their both hall of famers.

The common definition of a hall of famer is someone that dominated their position during their career. Halladay has done that. Doc is an eight time all star. He has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting seven times, winning the award twice. He has also finished in the top five in earned run average seven times. His 67 complete games and 20 shutouts pale in comparison to pitchers from the past but during the days of pitch counts and specialized relief pitchers Halladay has been a modern day iron man when healthy. Unfortunately this isn’t the first time Halladay has dealt with injuries. After his first Cy Young season in 2003 Halladay went on to start only a combined 40 games over the next two seasons. Once healthy again during the second half of 2005 Doc picked up where he left off and had six more great seasons before starting to decline as injuries took their toll again last year. It would be nice if Halladay had complete 2004 and 2005 seasons to help his cause but injuries happen in this game and guys aren’t rewarded for what could have been.

I don’t want to make an excuse for Halladay but I think the standards by which pitchers are judged to get in the HOF need to change soon. The game is simply not the same as it once was. We will likely never see another 300 game winner. For as great as Halladay has been he only has 201 wins. Pitchers just aren’t given the opportunity to win as many games these days, and it’s not for lack of talent. The wins stat doesn’t carry nearly as much weight as it used to. So despite the not so impressive by HOF standards 201 wins (although more impressive when you consider he has only 104 losses) I think Halladay has done enough during his career to warrant induction. It’s a new era for pitching and Halladay could be the first of this new generation to open the doors to the hall for others that will have their wins taken away by pitch counts and specialty relievers.

I honestly could see three different answers here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone say he is an obvious hall of famer, the next guy say he’s borderline, and the next say no way. So what do you think? Pretend Doc announces his retirement tomorrow. Is he in Cooperstown in 2019?

 

[The Crock]

It could go either way. Honestly, I think he has as good of a case as any of the dominant pitchers going today, but he's a borderline Hall of Famer overall. 2 Cy Youngs and a perfect game are wonderful things to have on your résumé, but 201 wins is low, even in this era. I understand that 300 wins is going to become rarer and rarer, but unless you're an absolutely dominant pitcher -- like Pedro Martinez in his prime -- that's going to be a threshold you'll need to reach (or be right under) to make your way into the Hall of Fame. He's had an excellent career and has been a premier pitcher over the last decade, but he just strikes me as a guy who will end up in the "Hall of Very Good," not the Hall of Fame with all the greats. If he can pull together 2 or 3 more respectable seasons (which is looking unlikely with his age and injury issues), I say we can let the guy in in account of his prime and being consistently good -- not to mention, it'll pad that win count a little, too. If he called it a career today, though -- I couldn't call him a Hall of Famer.

I also looked up some stuff on Baseball Reference and he looks to fall just short:

Roy Halladay = 65.3 career WAR/50.6 7yr-peak WAR/58.0 JAWS
Average HOF P (out of 57) = 72.6 career WAR/50.0 7yr-peak WAR/61.3 JAWS

The thing is, upon looking into it further, he ranks in the middle of the pack. He ranks below a lot of slam dunk HOF'ers, but ranks above a couple of HOF'ers in JAWS as well. He also ranks next to Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, CC Sabathia (a potential future Hall of Famer, if he keeps it up), and Dwight Gooden in terms of similarity score. So, again, he just seems to be a step below the elites. It's not conclusive though. It's a tough choice when you look at Doc, as I honestly think he could be in the HOF, but he could just as easily not be. I personally think he just missed the cut, though.

 

[Harthan]

I think he's really close. I think he has the Hall of Fame level peak, from say 2005-2012 or so, and I really thought going into this season he just needed 3-4 more years to pad his counting stats a little bit. 300 wins was definitely not going to happen, but a few more decent seasons (he won 11 last year) could have seen him to about 230-240 which would have helped convince the voters. Pedro Martinez is right about in that territory, and he's a likely first ballot guy. But his total collapse right now is really hurting his chances. It's good for him that he just did make 200 wins, since it'd be a really hard sell if he had less than 200. So I think he's going to come in right on the borderline. Would I vote for him? If he retired today, I would personally probably give him the vote when his time came. I think his body of work is strong, and he is also the owner of a perfect game, not something to forget about when a guy is this close. I think he's going to give a lot of voters a real headache, and probably won't be a first ballot guy, but I think he'll be around on the ballot for a long time and somewhere in that 15 years I'd be willing to bet he makes the cut.

 

[Mustang Sally]

He's a Hall of Famer.

In the prime 11 years of his career (2002-2012) he won 71% of his games..... and did that while playing for the Toronto Blue Jays, a middle-of-the-pack team that won only 49% of their games; a percentage that would have been even lower if not for Halladay's contributions. Just that contrast alone shows his greatness.

Sure, the Phillies took a risk paying all that money to a guy who's already had 15 years in the majors.....and it could be he's already reached the end of the dominant phase of his career. But what he's already done definitely qualifies him for HOF honors.

 

[Richard Blonoff]

I think he is and would vote for him, but I think the fact that he struggled a lot in his early career and has been struggling this year(though he did go on the DL and is having shoulder surgery) could be a reason he doesn't get in for a few years. I think the fact that he played his most dominant years for an average at best Jays team will garner him some sympathy though. Plus Harth mentioned the perfect game, and he has a post season no-no(the only no hitter I've ever watched).

I think he will ultimately go down along with another guy mentioned, Tim Hudson. Neither will be first ballot guys, but both were consistently good to great pitchers over their careers and were good guys who did a lot of charity work(always a plus with voters) and they will go in during a year that has a less than stellar class.

 

[Megatron]

I'd say yes. His 2 Cy's are nothing to sneeze at and he was clearly a top 3 pitcher for a 6 or 7 year period. I actually put him well above Hudson, who was merely above average once he left Oakland and their fWAR's show that (68.0 for Halladay and 47.0 for Hudson). While it's a shame to see him crash and burn as much as he has, losing it is never good for anyone. Add in the perfect game and the no-hitter in the playoffs as your flashy accomplishments.

Sandy Koufax made it in with less starts, wins, and WAR (68.0 to 57) and nobody is disputing his inclusion. Not that Halladay is peak Koufax, but he had much more longevity and was in a similar position to Koufax in his prime (top 3 pitcher).

 

[ChrisHelms]

He is. He however isn't a first, second, third, fourth, or even fifth ballot guy. There are so many great players that will be eligible in the coming years, and I truly feel, that in 7-8 years (Halladay's eligibility starts) we will look back and start letting the steroid era batters and pitchers in. IMO, he's THE greatest pitcher of the century so far, but I do think that Bonds/Clemens will get in before him in a few years.

 

[miz2676]

I think he is a hall of famer but I don't think he will be a first ballot. He has had a very solid career. His early career was not very good I even know at one point he thought of commuting suicide but he turned his career around and became one of the greatest pitchers of this era. He has two cy youngs one in each league not many pitchers have done that. He also has a perfect game and a no hitter in the playoffs that alone has only been done by I think one or two other pitchers. He has the blemish of only 201 wins so far but if he plays a few more decent seasons he can reach 220-250 to make that stat a little more pleasable. One other blemish but really doesn't affect players in the mlb is he has no rings and this era is all about the hardware and rings. But in the long run he will be a hall of famer.