Most and Least Predictable Rumble Winners

[The Brain]

For as much as we all love the Royal Rumble I think we can all agree the outcome is usually very predictable. Ever since the stakes were raised with the winner getting a mania title shot we could narrow the rumble winner down to one or two guys, and most of the time just one. Hulk Hogan being the winner of two of the four rumbles before that stipulation wasn’t exactly a shocker either. My question is which rumble outcome was the most and least predictable.

Most predictable: You could almost blindly throw a dart and hit on a good answer here. Although many were predictable I’d have to say the most predictable was 1998. Stone Cold Steve Austin was about as hot as a wrestler could be during the second half of 1997. It was obvious he was the next main event superstar. There were some decent competitors in the rumble that year, but who besides Austin had a chance of wrestling Shawn Michaels at WM14? I’d say the next most likely guy was Owen Hart and I think we all knew Owen wasn’t going to main event mania. As I said many years have been predictable but for most other years I could convince myself of another option if I really tried; especially since the brand extension. In 1998 there was no other option than Austin.

Least predictable: This is really hard as I don’t think I’ve ever been really surprised by a rumble outcome. I’m going to disqualify 2008 and 2010 since we didn’t even know the winners were going to be in the rumble. I’m sure literally every response would be Cena in 2008 so let’s not even go there. My choice is 2006. I know WWE was big on what the perceived to be as honoring Eddie back then, but I didn’t think they were going to go so far as to have Rey Mysterio win the Royal Rumble. I thought either Triple H, or more likely in my mind at the time, Randy Orton was going to win. Triple H vs. Cena seemed like a lock for mania so HHH was a logical choice. I also pictured Randy Orton vs. Kurt Angle at mania but that was more of a guess. It turned out that Orton ended up getting a title shot against Angle anyway but he had to join rumble winner Mysterio in a triple threat to get it. I can’t say I was shocked that Mysterio won. The thought that he could win was definitely in the back of my mind. I just didn’t think WWE was going to pull the trigger on it.

Not that you’ve seen my choices tell me which are yours. Again I encourage everyone to leave out 2008 and 2010 as least predictable for the sake of actually having a discussion.

 

[chuckhardslab]

i would say yokozuna i mean he was some fat guy and was kinda more of a midcrader didnt expect him to go win the rumble to mainevent mania but the finish sucked

 

[erichirschi]

moment from RR would probably be the tie with bret hart and lex luger...or Vincent K. McMahon winning

i can't really pick the least predictable moment because all of them are pretty much predictable...do you really think Henry godwinn would have won or Crush in 95'??or in 99' D-lo brown or big boss man for those WTF moments i chose

but back to the thread...the most predictable has been from 2002- to now..the majority of the winners have been either people coming back from injury, a hot heel(randy orton or lesner) or winning for the death latino heat angle

 

[mattmanRKO]

Most predictable has to be Randy Orton is 2009!
Everyone knew it was going to happen!
He was in the major story with the McMahon's and it dominated Raw even more so than the WWE championship story with Cena and JBL.
I seem to remember most of the IWC calling it and there were little if any other viable contenders to win it!

 

[FiveTymeWCWChamp]

The most predictable Royal Rumble winner was HHH when he made his comeback in 2002 bottom line. He was the #1 overall pick in our RR drinking game. I will give a list in order of my most predictable list.

1. HHH
2. Chris Benoit
3. Austin
4. Austin
5. Mysterio
6. Orton

 

[Camie]

Triple H in 2002. Definately most predictable. He came back that month and had so much hype and push it was basically down to him or Kurt Angle and we with Jericho champ it was pretty obvious it would be Triple H.

 

[triple_b2k]

Good topic!
Predictable:
2004 - Chris Benoit

Unpredictable:
1995 - Shawn Michaels

5 of the last 8 Rumbles have been won by an entry later than 28. The other 3 wins have been by someone who entered before 8.
ALSO funny that only 2 wrestlers have won the rumble that came in during the teens (Jim Duggan 88 and Shawn Michaels 96)

 

[awesomeisthemiz]

Last year when edge won it.. i knew he was coming back as the surprise entry and was gonna win it, but the whole thing with HBK wanting to face taker at WM was a predictible one to

 

[OWEN-ing It All]

Most predictable has to be Randy Orton is 2009!
Everyone knew it was going to happen!
He was in the major story with the McMahon's and it dominated Raw even more so than the WWE championship story with Cena and JBL.
I seem to remember most of the IWC calling it and there were little if any other viable contenders to win it!

Agreed. Easily the most predictable. It was pretty obvious before he kicked McMahon, but as soon as he punted him. It was a lock.

I would have to assume the inaugural Rumble in 1988 was the LEAST predictable. However, I did not start watching wrestling until 1989 and this is still the only Rumble I have never seen. So I couldn't say with any certainty. But looking at who was involved, Duggan wouldn't have been my first choice.

The least predictable outcome was the co-winners in 1994.

The LEAST predictable winner was definitely Vince McMahon. It became more obvious after the match had begun, but heading in it wasn't even on my mind.

But I think, this years is a complete toss up heading into the Rumble. A lot of guys could win, but who actually does is gonna be a surprise. I just hope the final four are capable winners and not fluff.

 

[nbrew2119]

When Lesnar won the Royal Rumble, he wasnt a heel, he was a face...he beat the Big Show earlier in the night to qualify, because, his former agent Paul Heyman was trying to screw him over....this was the Wrestlemania where he fought Kurt Angle, and landed on his head.

Anyhoo, my most predictable would definately be, HHH in 2002....as has been said numerous times, anyone who comes back from an injury, they win the Royal Rumble...although this year, i think the big return, will be HHH costing Sheamus the Royal Rumble

My most unpredictable is Chris Benoit...i know he was feuding with the GM at the time, Paul Heyman, and he was named number one but, for some reason, i just didnt see him winning it....and, although WWE wont admit it, he lasted longer than Rey Mysterio did the year he won the Royal Rumble...Benoit last 1 hour 4 minutes...Mysterio lasted 1 hour 2 minutes

 

[Marks "R" Us]

While Stone Cold's 98 Rumble win probably was the most predictible win, his Rumble win the year before was the least predictible ever I think. In the 97 Rumble the favorites were definatley Bret and Taker. Austin pulling off the upset was a big shocker at the time.

 

[Ruthless-RKO]

Most Predictable
Chris Benoit - It was predictable for me because the rumble hype was all about him that year.. he said he would do it.. and what a shame it would have been if he didn't.. Everyone was talking about this man.. and all throughout.. everyone had their eyes on Chris..

Honourable Mention
Triple H - 2002

Least Predictable
Shawn Michaels 1995 - No one thought it was possible!!! and thats why has to be least predictable for me..

Honourable Mention
Vince McMahon - 1999

 

[Poop Master Flex]

Biggest upset in the rumble to me was actually the 2nd one when Big John Studd won.

Austin's '97 win wasn't that surprising especially since Austin was getting pushed pretty hard at the time. With John Studds it was completely unexpected and he was definitely the last person I would think would win. In a match that had Hogan, Savage (who was the champ at the time), Jake Roberts, and Andre the Giant the one who pulled off the victory was someone who just recently returned and kind of fell into obscurity for a long while there. Sure, Studd got pushed when he came back but with all the others in the match he seemed very unlikely to win.

For me the easiest ones to figure out were '96 with Michaels, '98 with Austin and '02 with HHH. In all cases it was an open and shut case who would win the match even months before it happened. In Michaels and Austins case they were being groomed for the World title and I think everyone knew that these guys were taking the title at Wrestlemania. In HHH's case his return was so heavily publicized, he was gonna feud with Jericho (who was the champ) because Jericho injured him, and everyone knew he was gonna win.

Those are my picks.

 

[Da Prophet]

Most Predictable:
Yeah the easy one here is Randy Orton in 2009. The fact he was the only guy that got any hype in the Rumble match. The footage of him attacking Vince was player countless times in the build to the show, and at the show. Nobody else had a chance in hell, in winning other than Orton. But to back that up even more Orton had two guys helping him. So it would be very difficult to throw him over the top rope. Orton was getting major heat for the attack, and was the big player in that Rumble.

Least Predictable: I would go with Shawn Michaels in his first Rumble win. He started at number one, and went all the way. Something nobody had done before him. The finish made it even better, with him being thrown over the top rope. But both feet didn't hit the floor. Shawn pops back into the ring, and wins the match. Such a great moment, very unpredictable.

My choice is 2006. I know WWE was big on what the perceived to be as honoring Eddie back then, but I didn't’t think they were going to go so far as to have Rey Mysterio win the Royal Rumble. I thought either Triple H, or more likely in my mind at the time, Randy Orton was going to win. Triple H vs. Cena seemed like a lock for mania so HHH was a logical choice. I also pictured Randy Orton vs. Kurt Angle at mania but that was more of a guess. It turned out that Orton ended up getting a title shot against Angle anyway but he had to join rumble winner Mysterio in a triple threat to get it. I can’t say I was shocked that Mysterio won. The thought that he could win was definitely in the back of my mind. I just didn't’t think WWE was going to pull the trigger on it.

I have to disagree, I thought the 2006 Rumble was very predictable. WWE wanted to honor Eddie, and then Rey Mysterio said he was going to win the Rumble for Eddie. As a tribute, for his friend. Then Rey picks his number at the Rumble, and talks to Big Show about how he is doing it for Eddie. Rey looks up at, saying "you got me".

Then after Triple H gets number 1, Rey comes out in a low rider as number two. He does a little Eddie dance, and then puts the Eddie shirt on the front of the car. Rey Mysterio knew that he would have to go the whole way to win, just for Eddie. I thought it was very predictable, all the build for Eddie. Just all these little things Rey did, made me believe he was the winner for sure. And the fact he drew number two made me even more confident.

 

[Oracular Spectacular]

Most- Austin 1998

Easily the most predictable. No one else was really in the title picture at the time. Taker was on a crash course for Kane and was wrestling at the Rumble. Foley wasn't there yet, Rock wasn't there yet....really no one was. I think the next likely bet on this rumble would have been Owen Hart

Least- Ric Flair 1992
Everyone thought it was going to be Hogan, and if not Hogan Sid. I think Flair came out of left field since he hadn't been in the promotion too long.

 

[Hulk Hogan's Brother]

The first two Rumbles were both very unpredictable. No one knew what the Royal Rumble was all about but still fans would have thought that guys like Hogan or Savage were favorites. But the guys who eventually won it were Jim Duggan and Big John Studd. Duggan was a populaar midcard face while Studd was a nobody.

In modern Rumbles, ie the ones in which the winner got a title shot at Wrestlemania, I would say that the most unpredictable winner was Vince Mcmahon. I thought Austin would win it and go on to face Rock for the title at Mania. Austin did eventually face Rock for the title but that little curveball did make fans wonder about the possibilities. At one point I thought Mcmahon vs Austin would headline Mania.

The most predictable Rumble would have to be 1998. Austin was a huge star at that point and everybody wanted to see him win the belt at Wrestlemania. There wasn't really anybody else who had a shot. If you look at the shows prior to the 1998 Rumble, they are all about Austin and how he is a marked man. There could have only been one winner.

 

[OWEN-ing It All]

The most predictable Rumble would have to be 1998. Austin was a huge star at that point and everybody wanted to see him win the belt at Wrestlemania. There wasn't really anybody else who had a shot. If you look at the shows prior to the 1998 Rumble, they are all about Austin and how he is a marked man. There could have only been one winner.

I totally disagree. I see many people mentioning this and while I believed Austin would win. He was certainly not the only one in the match with a chance at winning. I actually thought that Shamrock had a very good chance to win it. If everyone remembers he was just coming off a victory by DQ over HBK at In Your House: D-X. Also Austin and Shamrock mixed it up on Sunday Night Heat, with Shamrock winning by DQ there as well. Then they had another altercation on a RAW leading up to the Rumble.

Plus Shamrock was known for being screwed during title matches. It would have been sweet revenge. That might have changed everything for Ken. Austin didn't need to solidify himself with a Rumble win, Shamrock did. If the screw job never took place. Things would have gone a lot differently. Bret may have dropped the belt to Ken, we'll never know though.

But I still stand firm, Orton was the most predictable. They practically told you he was going to win.

 

[Hulk Hogan's Brother]

I totally disagree. I see many people mentioning this and while I believed Austin would win. He was certainly not the only one in the match with a chance at winning. I actually thought that Shamrock had a very good chance to win it. If everyone remembers he was just coming off a victory by DQ over HBK at In Your House: D-X. Also Austin and Shamrock mixed it up on Sunday Night Heat, with Shamrock winning by DQ there as well. Then they had another altercation on a RAW leading up to the Rumble.

Plus Shamrock was known for being screwed during title matches. It would have been sweet revenge. That might have changed everything for Ken. Austin didn't need to solidify himself with a Rumble win, Shamrock did. If the screw job never took place. Things would have gone a lot differently. Bret may have dropped the belt to Ken, we'll never know though.

But I still stand firm, Orton was the most predictable. They practically told you he was going to win.

I respect your opinion but if you happen to watch the episodes of Raw leading upto the Royal Rumble, you will find that they were all about Steve Austin. Shamrock did get a victory over HBK by DQ at the previous PPV but he was heading towards a feud with the Rock over the IC title rather than against HBK.

Also the fact that Ken was geting screwed out of title matches was more relevant after his feud with Rocky. But the fact is that Austin's popularity was way more than that of any guy on the roster and had only risen after his match with The Rock at DX. Also he announced that he was giving up the IC title to go after the World title. That was also suggestive that he would win the Rumble.

If you watch a few episodes of Raw prior to the Rumble, they are all about Austin being a marked man and him stunning random guys to make himself look more meanacing. It was way too obvious that he was going to win but that is not a bad thing at all because everyone wanted Austin to win.( except for you, I guess)

 

[Freddy4190]

John Cena coming back at the Royal Rumble and winning it was incredibly surprising to me. I figured Cena would be on the shelf for awhile after that injury, I thought there was no way he would return soon. Even more, return at the Rumble, and then win it! I went nuts when Cena came out. It was the least predictable for me.

 

[The Mark of Zur-En-Arrh]

For me, the two most predictable winners were HHH and Orton. When the opening video package of the show, AND just before the match itself consists mainly of one heel attacking the chairman, then it's a damn safe bet that he would win the Royal Rumble and that's exactly what happened. I remember asking myself, 'is there any point in watching it at all now?'

And in 2002, HHH set the precedent for returning talent getting instant title reigns, but because they were hyping it sooooooo much beforehand, it was pretty damn obvious that HHH would win, even if you had forgotten the previous 2 years of him dominating everything anyway.

And although Edge and Cena's wins were unpredictable in the sense that no one knew they'd even enter the match, once they DID, it was obvious that they'd win it. Those comebacks went from shocking to predictable in the same breath both times.

As for least predictable, i personally would go with Taker winning in '07. He entered #30, which despite being the 'golden' number to pick, no one had ever won at #30. Plus Taker had actually drawn #30 several times in the years before 2007 and had still never won. PLUS Taker being a solidified ME'er who didn't really need the Rumble win, and add further to that the previous time he wrestled for the title at Mania being one of the worst Mania ME's ever, all added to the overall shock factor of the Deadman walking away with another accolade under his belt, especially as Rated-RKO were two of the last competitors, and everyone knew they were splitting up.

And secondly, i'd go with Vince in '99. I assumed Vince was just going to get a grade A ass kicking at the very end, with Austin dragging it out as much as possible in order to punish the boss.

 

[OWEN-ing It All]

I respect your opinion but if you happen to watch the episodes of Raw leading upto the Royal Rumble, you will find that they were all about Steve Austin. Shamrock did get a victory over HBK by DQ at the previous PPV but he was heading towards a feud with the Rock over the IC title rather than against HBK.

Also the fact that Ken was geting screwed out of title matches was more relevant after his feud with Rocky. But the fact is that Austin's popularity was way more than that of any guy on the roster and had only risen after his match with The Rock at DX. Also he announced that he was giving up the IC title to go after the World title. That was also suggestive that he would win the Rumble.

If you watch a few episodes of Raw prior to the Rumble, they are all about Austin being a marked man and him stunning random guys to make himself look more meanacing. It was way too obvious that he was going to win but that is not a bad thing at all because everyone wanted Austin to win.( except for you, I guess)

Yes, I realize the whole marked man segment was in place. But if you remember Austin and Shamrock were starting to feud with one another. But they never followed up with it.

And YES, I didn't want Austin to win. I've never been very high on Austin. I know his neck injuries caused him to be limited in the ring, but I'll never understand giving a guy a title that can't wrestle. He was great before his neck troubles, but if he can't work a quality match. Then he is useless to me, I'm a wrestling enthusiast. And don't get me wrong, Austin helped change the company......promo wise. But he buried many wrestlers along the way with his matches.......more so than Hogan. Wrestlemania 14 & 15 were 2 of the worst WM main events......so boring.

Ken Shamrock was a real deal fighter. A King of Pancrase winner, he owned his own dojo, was a superfight champion. He had the size, the look and he was extremely agile. He had the makings of a great champion. But thanks to poor booking it didn't amount to anything.

They made a mistake and they know it. If they would've done to Shamrock what they did with Kurt Angle......history would've been a lot different.

 

[Tastycles]

There's been a few predictable ones, but for me it comes down to two in particular. The first of these is Orton's win in 2009. With Jeff Hardy, Edge, Michaels and Cena all embroiled in the title matches, and Batista out injured, there were few contenders as it was. However, all of the build to the match was about Orton and McMahon, and there really couldn't be any other win. However, I'm not picking this, because I actually gave wrestling a bit too much credit at the time, and thought that outcome was too obvious to actually happen, much like Austin's win that never was in 1999.

The most predictable for me then is the 1991 match. With the US embroiled in a large scale active war for the first time since the modernisation of wrestling, the feel good win for the all American hero was all but a necessity. The fact that the Warrior had lost the title match earlier on, made the win all but certain. It was probably the right choice, but it was blatantly obvious from the outset.

The least predictable, well I'd say probably 1997. I actually really like '97, but it's no lie to say that it wasn't exactly star studded affair. I know Austin was on the up and up, but he had never had a title match on PPV at the time he won it. That made it a huge victory, and in the end, the WWF decided against pulling the trigger on it properly. I suppose the actual biggest surprise would have been the win for Luger and Hart in 1994. Nobody before and since would ever predict two winners, but that's the way they went.

 

[SuperstarBillyGraham]

For sure the most predictable in my eyes was either 2005 or 2009. In 2005 you had Batista finally turning face, everybody knew he was going to face HHH at mania. Plus you had him cutting these face promos while he was still a heel.

In 2009, I think everybody knew who was going to win, especially 5 minutes after the PPV even started. WHY? Because the first five minutes was a video package dedicated to the Orton/Mcmahon angle that was ongoing. Oh and also, the pre-rumble video package featured about a ten second still shot of Orton.

Least predictable for me has to be 2006. I mean, I was expecting Orton to win it THAT year. When Rey came out and dedicated his performance to Eddie I just thought that maybe he would last to the final 3 or 4 and then get eliminated. When it came down to Mysterio/Orton I just thought without a doubt that Orton was winning.

 

[The Rob]

Most:

Randy Orton (2009) - Well basically, it was a case of win the Royal Rumble or lose your job (if they wanted to keep things realistic in terms of storylines). Orton HAD to win that much and the fact they closed the final Raw before the PPV with him punting the chairman of the WWE in the head shows they were planning something huge for Orton.

Least:

John Cena (2008) - This was the least predictable Rumble winner of all because NOBODY knew he was entering. It came as a complete shock to me, and I suspect 99.9% of people here that he entered and won the Royal Rumble match. We were told he could miss at least 6 months but ended up coming back after about 4. I suspect no one predicted John Cena to walk down to the ring that night, let alone win the whole thing.

 

[AK2V8]

Most predictable: Randy Orton 2009. His feud with the McMahons and shit overshadowed Cena vs JBL at the time.

Most unpredictable: Del Rio 2011 was a small suprise. I thought a returned person would win. Even though Del Rio gave all his "destiny" speeches I just thought it was something for Del Rio to do. Benoit 2004 was another one with him entering at #1 and Batista 2005 was also unexpected as well.