ESPN ran their poll a few days back and apparently only 70% of the people who voted actually voted Maddux in. The BBWAA requires a 75% vote to have someone elected, so by that measure he wouldn't get it. I can't wrap my head around that at all. Maddux was a 300 game winner, a member of the 3,000 strikeout club, and won 18 gold gloves. How can you look at those numbers and say he isn't a HOFer. Is it because he wore glasses when he wasn't pitching? Was it because he had a physique that looked like he never hit the gym? Was it because he rarely hit 90mph on the radar gun?
That rant over, I think Glavine and Maddux both get in this year, and I suspect Biggio will as well. It was crazy to keep him off last year. As far as a few of the other guys I think will get in/be close over the course of their candidacy
Jack Morris- Morris is an interesting case. He had pretty good numbers. He has 250+ wins in his career, was a 5x All-Star, a 4x World Series Champion, and was just shy of 2,500 strikeouts. This will be his last year of eligibility and he has hovered in the mid 60%, so unless a bunch of voters suddenly feel sympathetic to his cause, I doubt he gets in
Jeff Bagwell- I think if Bags had played in any other era he would get much stronger consideration. He seems clean, he went through the natural progression of slowing down late in his career. He put up solid numbers for a slugger, 400+ HRs, 2000+ hits, and a career batting average just shy of 300. Had he not retired at 37 and stuck around a couple more years to chase #500 I think he would get in sooner, but as it stands I don't see him getting in for a few more years.
Mike Piazza- Piazza put up pretty similar numbers to Bagwell, but he did it from the catcher position instead of first base. He extended his career by moving to the AL and getting to DH, which I think will hurt his cause a little. The bias toward DHs is evident, but I think he will get in within the next couple of years, as he was arguably the best hitting catcher not named Bench.
Tim Raines- Raines has been getting more and more support in recent years, which is fine by me. Raines was a very good contact hitter and a demon on the base paths, but he had such a short prime that it caused him to fall short of the milestone numbers most guys view as automatic for a plaque in Cooperstown. I've heard stories that his drug use is something that a fair amount of BBWAA writers hold against him, so that could very well be delaying his induction.
Lee Smith- Plain and simple, I don't think Smith will ever get in. Had his career taken place ten years later I think he would get much more consideration, but he was really the first dominant one inning closer, so he didn't have many peers to compare him to. I have a feeling that once the great closers of recent years like Rivera and Hoffman get their nods(and truthfully they both deserve it) Smith will be talked about as a guy who should have gotten a nod as well.
Curt Schilling-By his own admission, Schilling isn't a HOFer, as he feels his early years weren't good enough, and I tend to agree. Aside from a great year in '92 at the age of 25, he didn't come into his own as a truly dominant pitcher until he hit his 30s. There is the potential for his postseason heroics with Arizona and Boston to carry him in eventually, but he is one of the guys I would place in the Hall of Very Good, not the Hall of Fame.
Edgar Martinez- I think Edgar should be in, 2200+ hits, 500+ doubles, 300+ HRs, 1200+ RBIs, a career .312 average, two batting titles, and he drew more walks than he struck out in his career. Those are the numbers of a great hitter, and he did it all in one city. You could argue that since Edgar was a DH most of his career he should have put up more impressive numbers at the plate, which is why I think it will take a few years, but for Gar to not get in would be crazy.
Alan Trammell- Trammell is an odd case, as I don't think his numbers alone get him in, but his work in the field gives him a boost. He has solid numbers for a SS, 2200+ hits and 1000+ RBIs, but injuries hindered the middle part of his career. A lot of sabermetric guys are high on him, Bill James going so far as to call him the 9th best shortstop to ever play the game, but I just can't see him getting in, though if he did he wouldn't be the worst pick.
Larry Walker-Walker is a guy, who like Schilling, was a solid but unspectacular player until he hit age 30. He won seven gold gloves, three batting titles, and an MVP award in his career, as well as putting up good numbers, similar to other guys I've listed, but his real breakout years didn't happen until he hit 30, which was around the time he started playing in Colorado. I think he deserves to be praised as one of the best pure hitters of his time, I don't think he will get the call.
Fred McGriff- I think McGriff should get in for his nickname alone, Crimedog. I'm biased because I grew up with him on the Braves, but I think he should get in. He finished his career seven home runs shy of 500, ten hits shy of 2500, nine doubles shy of 450, and 1550 RBIs. Sadly that was the story of McGriff's career, coming of just short, and I think that will be the story of his candidacy as well.
Frank Thomas- Speaking of 500 home runs, Thomas should get in. I doubt he gets in on the first ballot, but look at his career numbers and tell me he doesn't get in within three years. 2400 hits, 495 doubles, 521 HRs, 1700 RBIs, 300 more walks than strikeouts, a .300 average, 2x MVPs and a batting title. On top of all that, he was regarded as a clean player, speaking out against steroids as far back as '95.
Jeff Kent- Aside from having arguably the best porn star mustache in my lifetime, you can argue Kent was the best second baseman of his generation. He won the MVP in 2000, playing on the same team as Barry Bonds. He and Bonds played together for six years and it was prolific for Kent. In his career he ended up with 2400+ hits, 560 doubles, 377 HRs(351 of which came while playing 2nd, giving him the most all time), and 1500+ RBIs. He isn't without knocks. For a second baseman he had virtually no speed, and he was a very supbar fielder, which only got worse when he was switched to third late in his career. He also struck out nearly twice as many times as he walked in his career, but despite those drawback I think he will get in, and he likely gets in before Bonds.
Mike Mussina-Moose ended his career with 270 wins, and 2800+ strikeouts, and only twice in his 18 year career did he have a losing record as a pitcher. He was the definition of consistent, and unlike a lot of guys he retired on top. At 39 he had just become the oldest pitcher to win 20 games, then he called it quits. I think had he have stuck around another year or two to reach the 300, 3000 mark he would be guaranteed on his first ballot, but as it stands I think it will take three or four years.
Sean Casey- I wanted to give a special mention to Casey because if you picked HOFers based on their personality, Casey would get in a thousand times over. He had a six year stretch to begin his career where he was one of the best non power hitting first basemen in the game, but injuries derailed his career. Cincinnati did recognize him by inducting him into the team HOF, but sadly we will never get into the actual HOF.
