I agree, there are some very important factors going into this fight and they all weigh in favor of our favorite trash talking bad boy, Chael. After 117 Chael's submission defense became a very big part of his training, you could say he should have been doing that the whole time and then maybe he wouldn't have lost so fucking many fights by submission, but better late than never. He's been working subs with Cesar Gracie's boys(that's right ^_^) for some time now and he's improved by leaps and bounds there, not to mention pretty much every part of his game has improved since their first fight.
More importantly is the mental and physical state of Forrest Griffin, which seems to be fading more and more every time we see him. I honestly believe that we lost the old Forrest after the two KO losses in a row to Rashad and ofcourse the unforgettably embarrassing loss to Anderson. Since then he barely beat Tito at 106, won a good decision over Rich Franklin but then looked terrible against Shogun and most recently picked up a BS decision against Ortiz.
Now I'll give credit where credit's due, he had a good win against Rich but he still had something about him that was sad to watch, like you knew he had more in him to do but he just skated by.
With Shogun it was an early KO and you could say that he just got caught with a big shot, but if you say Forrest before that fight and in the cage when it was starting he knew he was losing, I've never seen such a lack of confidence before a fight and it was disheartening because I was rooting for the guy.
Lastly the 3rd Tito fight, he seemed unmotivated and was throwing his combos half assed, getting rocked and getting taken down. He knew his performance was terrible but still got the W.
My point here isn't to give Forrest crap, until his last fight I was always rooting for him and was a fan but I think he's lost it and it's really hard to watch him go in there now. If he fights like he has been these past few fights he doesn't stand a chance, if he can get the fire burning he's got a good chance of picking him apart on the fight and although he'd still get taken down he'd be able to work his guard and get back to his feet. That would be cool to see but I don't think that he's got it in him to fight at this level anymore and should retire soon. I've got Chael by a dominant decision, similar to the Okami fight.