Waiting for the Boomers to Die

[IrishCanadian25]

The United States is Waiting for the Boomers to Pass Away
a position peice by IC25
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The United States of America - along with the economy of the rest of the world, mind you - have been hovering their hands around the proverbial panic button for a while now in response to the recent economic crisis. When you really sit and look at the data, however, it's a fairly rough harbinger of things to come for the USA, and the facts that I am about to present have already started effecting the economical and political landscape.

The United States of America is basically going to be tied up economically with the Baby Boomer population for the forseeable future, basically until the Baby Boomer generation dies out.

Here are the facts:

1. In 1950, 3,548,000 babies were born in the US. In the post-WWII America, returning veterans went home to their wives and started some of the biggest families the US had ever seen. The result was a "baby boom."

From 1947-1957, the decade of time largely attributed to the Baby Boom, 77.3 Million Americans were born. The US population has inched above 300 million, which means the Boomers account for greater than 25% of the population.

2. Assuming a retirement age of 60 years old, the Baby Boomers started leaving the work force in 2007.

So the "elders" in the US population - the largest population by generation in US history up to this date - are just STARTING to retire. This means experience is leaving the work force, and social security and pensions are starting to make the pay outs to this huge group of people.

3. The average annual expenditures on health care in 2004 for people ages 45 to 54 — the age group that is the heart of the baby boom generation, was $2,695. When budgeting medical expenses, baby boomers should expect increased health-care spending as they age; for instance, those age 55 to 64 spent $3,262 and those 65 and over, $3,899.

These facts are taken from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now let's assume for a moment that the dollar amount - $2,695 - remained consistent for the duration of each Boomer's life. That means annual expenditures of up to $208,323,500,000 on Baby Boomer Health Care ALONE. Some of them can afford it themselves. Many of them rely on companies or businesses. Many more cannot rely on anyone.

4. According to the Social Security Administration, there are currently 3.3 members of the workforce to each social security beneficiary. In 2031, when ALL Boomers will be over the age of 65, there will be only 2.1 members of thw workforce to each SSB.

That means that right now, 3.3 taxpayers are responsible for each one person on Social Security. In a little over 20 years, the burden shouldered by that 3.3 will be handled by 2.1 people. This means either quality of care has to decrease or social security taxes have to increase.

5. The average life expectancy for a person in the United States has risen in the last several years from 71 to 77 years old.

Obviously, this indicates a greater length of cost in the health care, pensions, and social security benefits for the upcoming Baby Boomers, who are coming of age at a time when new advances in prescription medicine and surgery seem to be made daily.

So what does this all mean?

1. It means that the "belt of the hour glass" are screwed.

The US population has taken on a bit of an hourglass look to it, with the Baby Boomers representing the largest population at the top, a thinning-out in the middle, and the "echo-boom," or current young generation at the bottom. The boomers will depend on the tax dollars of the smallest area of the US population until they die, as will the health care of young children as well as the cost of social programs such as welfare and orphanages for the youngest population.

2. It means there is no question what the biggest industry will be for the next 30 years.

Health Care. Nurses are ALREADY in heavy demand, and the need for additional assisted living facilities and clinics will be hard to keep up with over the next several years. Doctors and nurses who deal with the elderly will have lucrative job security for a few decades.

3. It means education funding may drop precipitously.

Baby Boomers aren't parents to 1st-12th graders anymore, so do you really think they will all be voting IN FAVOR of a school board budget that doesn't benefit them and raises their taxes when they live on a fixed income? Not a chance.

4. It means the youth are largely voiceless in the political landscape for the forseeable future.

If 30+ percent of your constituency is in the 60-yr-old-and-up bracket, isn't it safe to assume that a politician seeking reelection / approval will focus on placating that demographic - especially when that demographic has BY FAR the highest percentage of voter turnout??? People ages 18-40 should expect their voices to become a tad more muted over the gravely voices of the elderly.

5. It means your car insurance is going up.

I know, this conjures funny images of the episode of South Park when Stan's grandfather refuses to give up driving, but with the largest population consisting of a population marked by a sociological refusal to accept the issues associated with age (saving for retirement, for example), you better believe the aging boomers will be even LESS inclined to stay off the roads. Ok, maybe this one is here for humor...

One could make a few more scary extrapolations based on these statistics, but the warning of economists about the potential bankruptcy of the Social Security system don't seem so far fetched, and with a near-Trillion Dollar Health Care spending bill passing in the US this weekend, you can already see the political landscape shifting to the overwhelming care for the elderly. And the costs and stresses associated with this cultural and demographic phenomenon will only be over...

...when the Baby Boomers die.

 

[Барбоса]

This is part of the overall trend affecting the western world. Due to the giant strides made in medicine during the 20th century, people are living so much longer. Reaching 80 years old is no longer a big achievement and the western economy and politics have yet to full re-tune to this demographic change. They control a disproportionate percentage of western wealth and are the dominant political grouping.

I don't see this changing with the death of the Baby Boomer generation either.

 

[Tastycles]

It's a definite problem, and a real problem, that could easily have been spotted and sorted at any point in the last 60 years but wasn't. Politicians needed to make the unpopular, but ultimately right thing to do by raising the retirement age as the life expectancy increased. When the first pensions were introduced, people were only expected to live 5-10 years beyond retirement, now it is 15-20. It is too late to change it, because of the backlash, but essentially somebody should have said domething like the pension age will rise by 2 years every 5 years.