This card is absolutely stacked, if I had the money I would be going seeing as it’s about 30 minutes away but I’ll have to live with watching at a sports bar somewhere. I’m still pumped as hell for the whole card from top to bottom and cannot wait to see two legends I respect the hell out of, finally throw down when Shogun and Hendo meet on Saturday night.
Shamar Bailey vs Danny Castillo
Shamar is a tough son of a bitch, we learned that in his fight with Evan Dunham where he took everything that the former lightweight contender could dish out and kept coming. But with that being said he reminded us once again that when he can’t get you down and control you he relies on very basic boxing, but he does have some power to add to it. Castillo fared much better when he face a former lightweight contender in his UFC debut when he picked up a Unanimous Decision over Joe Stevenson, and after a good run in the WEC where he scored solid wins over Ricardo Lamas and Dustin Poirier he has proven to be a young man on the rise despite a minor set back in his most recent fight where he lost a decision to Jacob Volkmann. Bailey is a tough kid, but Castillo is much more experienced and well rounded, he will have the advantage in just about every position. That being said I think that Bailey’s tenacity will keep him in this fight to the end, but in a losing effort.
Castillo by Decision
Seth Baczynski vs Matt Brown
Seth is a guy that I really enjoyed watching on The Ultimate Fighter 11 but didn’t expect him to find much success, especially after losing his fight at the TUF finale to Brad Tavares and getting cut from the UFC. But after the cut he got more serious, picked up two knockout wins in other promotions and found his way back to the octagon at UFC Fight Night: Sheilds vs Ellenburger, and in his return he dominated TUF 13 cast member Clay Harvison by controlling the action on thee feet and rocking him before securing a Rear Naked Choke. Brown has had his ups and downs in the promotion since a good run on TUF 7, his fighting mindset is the epitome of the warrior’s spirit and when he fights he does so to hurt and finish you. This has worked for him in his fights with Pete Sell, James Wilks and John Howard most recently, however he has a weakness when it comes to guys with good wrestling and submission skills like Ricardo Almeida, Chris Lytle and Brian Foster. Brown will put up a fight on the feet but Seth will capitalize on his opponent’s weakness with his strength and pick up the submission.
Baczynski by Submission (Kimura)
Miguel Torres vs Nick Pace
This one is so lopsided it really isn’t even funny, former WEC Bantamweight Champion Miguel Torres looks to rebound from his last loss to recent title challenger Demitrious Johnson against rookie Nick Pace. Torres hasn’t been able to find his rhythm since losing his title to Brian Bowles back in 2009, he’s picked up two wins since but he isn’t the same fighter. Picking up a finish over Pace may be the first step to getting his groove back though, Pace is an impressive young gun who picked up the first victory by Pillory Choke in a Professional MMA bout in his UFC debut at the TUF 12 finale. Most recently though he lost a decision to Ivan Menjivar, he is a promising young talent but he is very much outmatched in this fight. Torre will do what he pleases with this rookie and finish him by either sub or TKO.
Torres by Submission (Whatever the fuck he wants)
Gleison Tibau vs Rafael Dos Anjos
Now this is a fight that I am looking forward to, a tough grizzled vet who is the Incredible Hulk of the Lightweights and a guy who started off rough in the UFC but has recently shown that he is a serious threat to any 55er. Gleison Tibau is a guy who has fought and beat some of the best around in his 14 UFC fights, with guys like Rich Clementi, Jeremy Stephens and Kurt Pelligrino on his hit list you know he means business. He is built like a tank and he fights like one as well, he never backs off and he has some damn good takedowns and power from any top position on the ground, which will probably come into play in this fight. Dos Anjos was welcomed to the UFC by Jeremy Stephens at UFC 91 with one of the gnarliest knockouts in UFC history. Aside from and losses to top fighters Tyson Griffin and Clay Guida, Dos Anjos has kicked ass since making it to the bit time, picking up very impressive wins recently, submitting Terry Etim and knocking out former contender George Soteropolis at UFC 132. Although Dos Anjos seems to have found his groove and is improving ever time we see him I don’t see him dealing with Gleison’s powerful top game, he might get ground and pounded out or he might survive to the judges decision but lose.
Tibau by TKO (Ground N Pound)
Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman
We’ve got a battle of two great wrestlers in this one, TUF 9 vet Tom Lawlor is going to have his toughest test of a wrestler since his fight with Ryan Bader when he steps in against unbeaten UFC newcomer and relative MMA newcomer Chris Weidman. Lawlor has definitely become a fan favorite since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter for amazing wars against Aaron Simpson and Joe Doerkson and his entertaining weigh in costumes, and I’ll admit I’m one of those fans. The only times he has tasted defeat were in a close stand up war with Simpson and the Doerkson fight where he nearly knocked out his opponent before gassing and being subbed. But since then he has worked on not blowing his cardio during his fights and playing it smart after his last win over Patrick Cote, but he’ll be in for a rough one Saturday. Weidman is a very impressive fighter with even more impressive wreslting, which he has used along with some good striking to pick up 6 wins in his young career including 2 wins in the UFC over Alessio Sakara and Jesse Bongfeldt. Weidman is a very athletic kid and he will use his wrestling in this fight to pick up the win, although if Lawlor won I would be happy with that.
Weidman by Decision
Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto
If you don’t know who Michael McDonald is then let me tell you that you should keep an eye on this bantamweight, he’s 13-1 and the only times he’s gone to a decision are his two most recent fights since coming to the UFC, before that his record consisted of 7 knockouts and 4 submissions. He’s a very entertaining fighter and he is going places here in the UFC, he faces newcomer Alex Soto this Saturday and will look to make it 3 in a row here on the grandest stage in MMA. Anything can happen and I’m not counting Soto out but I see him outmatched here and I expect McDonald to get back to his habit of finishing his opponents with a TKO here.
McDonald by TKO
Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz
Yet again we have a battle of wrestlers, Ryan Bader will look to rebound from the two first losses in his his professional career when he steps in the octagon this Saturday. Brilz became a recognized name when he nearly beat Lil Nog a while back but since was knocked out by fellow Light Heavyweight Vladimir Matyushenko very early in his return after a decent layoff. Bader is going into this fight to prove that he is still one of the best at 205 and Brilz will be doing the same but I think that Ryan’s drive is going to push him and help him pick up a victory where he has a major advantage, the feet.
Bader by KO
Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury
If Faber-Bowles was not on this card I guarantee this one would be Fight Of The Night. Bonnar is ofcourse a legend in the UFC since his fight with Forrest Griffin back at the first TUF finale, he has had somewhat of a journeyman’s career in the UFC and he will always have a job there, but he isn’t someone to look past at all. Kingsbury has slowly been establishing himself as a contender at 205 after impressive wars with Jared Hamman and Fabio Maldonado, and a very quick finish over Ricardo Romero. I love both of these guys but Kingsbu is on the rise and he can do more with the win, I know he has what it takes to win this fight and do so in exciting fashion.
Kingsbury by Decision
Martin Kampann vs Rick Story
Well if it isn’t the unluckiest man to ever go to a decision and the guy who beat Thiago Alves but couldn’t beat Charlie Brenneman, just kidding. This one could be good, I don’t like Rick Story and I love Martin Kampmann but Martin sometimes has trouble pulling the trigger and is just content staying on the outside and trying to leg kick and jab his way to a win, that hasn’t worked out very well for him. I honestly think that after his loss to Paul Daley where he was beaten to shit he has lost some confidence but he definitely has the ability to take this if he wants it, especially since he survived Jake Shields and nearly beat him. Story is just going to try and wrestlefuck and dirtybox Kampmann in this one, he’ll probably succeed but I hope he doesn’t.
Story by Decision
Brian Bowles vs Urijah Faber
If this fight isn’t finished I definitely see this being Fight Of The Night, both guys are extremely athletic and fast, this one is going to be 100 mph the entire fight. I like Faber but I really like Bowles, as a matter of fact he’s my favorite guy at Bantamweight. I think that Faber is going to be the stronger man and dominate with his superior grappling and win a decision, however if Brian can hit him good on the feet I could see him putting his lights out with that powerful right hand of his that is very underrated. I know that Urijah will probably win this fight like the Wineland fight but I’m backing my boy here.
Bowles by KO
Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le
This is the first time that I can say I’m not excited for a Wanderlei Silva fight, I am expecting that this will be his last fight and even though normally I would say Cung Le doesn’t stand a chance, I think simply because of the state that Wandi is going to be in he had a decent chance. Le is very overrated in Strikeforce, he’s a good fighter but not even close to what they market him as. I see this one being a rough fight but I could not pick Le and live with myself, even though I think this is going to be a hard one I am backing Wandi.
Silva by Split Decision
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs Dan “Hendo” Henderson
Holy shit I have been wanting to see this one for quite some time, this is every Pride fan’s dream match and I will be going bonkers during this main event. I respect the hell out of both men and I like both of them but in this one my alligence lies with Hendo(sorry jmt). There is no way this fight will be boring, I think we’ll have roughly a 1 minute feeling out process followed by a bloody war that will end with Dan connecting and putting Shogun to sleep. Shogun looked like a reborn fighter against Griffin and Hendo has looked great since he knocked out Babalu, I am going to be so nervous during this fight because it’s going to end in the blink of an eye, I’m just hoping that Dan is not the one receiving that knock out, but he very well may be.
Hendo by KO
Bonus Predictions
Fight Of The Night: Kingsbury vs Bonnar
Knockout Of The Night: Dan Henderson
Submission Of The Night: Miguel Torres