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MAIN CARD
- Lightweight Championship: Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
- Middleweight bout: Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann
- Light Heavyweight bout: Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera
- Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim
- Lightweight bout: Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi
Preliminary Card (Non-televised)
- Lightweight bout: Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens
- Featherweight bout: Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier
- Middleweight bout: Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares
- Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Diego Nunes
- Welterweight bout: Greg Soto vs. Daniel Roberts
- Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Antonio McKee
This is a rare case where the undercard matches on the main card are really more interesting than the main event and co-main event. UFC 125 will be a card that's worth watching, but not go out of your way to plop $55 on.
Starting with the main event, there should be a lot more interest in the actual storyline between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. Maynard defeated Edgar a couple of years ago. He's the only person to ever defeat Edgar. Since then, Frankie Edgar somehow surpassed Maynard in the rankings and became Lightweight Champion. Maynard is still undefeated. It may not be the most exciting matchup, but it's the matchup that absolutely makes the most sense right now.
Styles make matchups and these two could not have more different styles. Edgar has his speed and Maynard has power. Will Frankie Edgar be able to do what he did to BJ Penn, which is utilize his speed to unleash combos and stay in the fringes so he can't be attacked? Or, will Gray Maynard be able to dominate Edgar with his ground and pound? The only thing that is for sure is that this will likely go to a decision. If I had to guess, I would say that Gray Maynard will win. He's beaten Edgar before. Edgar can't avoid the takedown for five rounds, and we've seen Gray wear down opponents and break their will physically, and in Kenny Florian's case, mentally and emotionally.
In the co-main event, Chris Leben will look to continue his career renaissance, this time against Brian Stann. This is a major letdown opponent for Leben. He should be taking on top 10 competition right now, and Stann surely is not a top 10 Middleweight. Taking this at face value, it should be a fun standup war. However, Leben should have this in hand with a second round KO.
Thiago Silva will return to the Octagon for the first time in a year, taking on Brandon Vera. This could be a win or go home fight for both guys, and both will likely be looking for the knockout. The reason why Thiago could be going home with a loss is because both times he fought elite competition, not only did he lose, which is one thing, but he looked horrible in doing so. He is a major injury concern for the UFC as well. He's fighting for the first time in a year. With a loss, Brandon Vera's going to hit the magic number of 3 losses... which is what I think will happen. Brandon Vera's a shitty fighter, and even though he's not an elite fighter, Thiago Silva is still very good, and I expect him to make quick work of Vera.
Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim should be a great fight, and another win at Welterweight for Nate Diaz, who has looked great since going up in weight so far. Being a judo specialist can only get you so far in the UFC. Not to mention, being a judo specialist means that Kim will look to grab his opponent and throw him. Nate is just too quick for that. I expect Nate to keep the fight standing and employing the strategy he used against Marcus Davis, frustrating him by peppering him with shots at unorthodox angles. Kim's record of 13-0 and 1 No Contest is very deceiving. He hasn't beaten anyone that is nothing better than run of the mill, and he's never been impressive in victory. Karo Pariysan beat him at UFC 94 and it got overturned due to Karo being a fucktard. I expect Nate to frustrate him on the feet and eventually pull guard and Triangle Choke Kim. He's showing flashes of being just as good as Nick right now.
Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi should be a very fun fight to kick the card off. When we last saw Gomi, nobody expected much of anything out of him as it was widely believed that Tyson Griffin would wrestle him for three rounds. Gomi made very quick work of him. Once again, he faces an opponent that has the potential to wrestle him for three rounds. Gomi needs to keep it standing as much as possible, but Guida is relentless, and he will exploit Gomi's lack of grappling ability. Guida brings an onslaught for every fight, has an unbelievable gas tank, and it's highly unlikely Gomi will be able to catch Guida like he did with Tyson Griffin. Guida's head is quite hard. I think Guida wears Gomi down and submits him.
The prelims have some real interesting fights. The one that jumps out to me is Marcus Davis, who couldn't have picked a worse time to drop to Lightweight, squaring off against Jeremy Stephens. This would have been Win or Go Home for both guys in the first place and that's before you account for the WEC fighters jumping over. Davis has looked really bad lately, getting destroyed by Ben Saunders and Nate Diaz, and dropping a decision to Dan Hardy before that. Sure, he beat Jonathan Goulet in between the losses to Saunders and Diaz, but Goulet is not UFC level competition. Stephens looked like crap against Melvin Guillard, and I could absolutely see him getting cut with a loss. He's never quite reached his potential and a loss to Marcus Davis would severely devalue him at this point. A lot of guys in the lightweight division are on short leashes right now with the influx of talent coming over from the WEC.
We also have two Featherweight bouts on the prelims. Josh Grispi and Dustin Poirier will square off to decide the #1 Contender to Jose Aldo, and Mike Brown will also be fighting and looking to make a name for himself in the UFC.
In the Middleweight Division Phil Baroni is in a major win or go home situation against Brad Tavares, who I felt was one of the more impressive fighters from TUF 11. Tavares should take a decision.