UFC 115 Prediction Contest!

[Turd Ferguson]

This is the prediction contest for UFC 115! DO NOT post your picks in this thread. PM your picks to me whenever you are ready. I will be taking picks up until the fights start, which should be around 7:00 p.m. EST. Any picks submitted after that point will not count.

When you make your picks, you have to pick whoever you think will win, the amount of confidence points you assign to each fighter, the method of victory (strikes, sub hold or decision), and the round (or decision). Regular fights are 3 rounds. Championship fights are 5 rounds. There are NO title fights on this card.

Here are two examples of correct predictions:

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Luiz Cane
Winner: Nogueira (4)
Method of Victory: Strikes
Round: 1

A correct prediction here would net 6 points.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Keith Jardine
Winner: Rampage (6)
Method of Victory: Decision

A correct prediction here would net 8 points. If you predict a decision, that is how you should go about predicting it.

I will be sending my picks to JMT225 so that there is no suspicion of cheating.

If you need reference for how this works, or have any questions, check out this thread: http://forums.wrestlezone.com/showthread.php?t=112934

I will not be reminding anyone about confidence points this time... it's your responsibility to understand the system.

Marquis will be defending his title against JMT225. How the title system works is that whoever scores the highest amount of points for each card gets the title shot for the next card. If JMT225 loses, but he still scores the most points out of everyone, then he gets another shot for our next card, which will be the TUF Finale or UFC 116. Actually, I'll throw up a poll and let you decide if we should do a pick'em for the TUF Finale.

Here are the fights we will be predicting. There are 8 total fights, so assign your confidence points accordingly. Use the provided link to help you pick fights.

http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-115-Liddell-vs-Franklin-12447

Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

Patrick Barry vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

Ben Rothwell vs. Gilbert Yvel
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

Tyson Griffin vs. Evan Dunham
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

Mac Danzig vs. Matt Wiman
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

David Loiseau vs. Mario Miranda
Winner:
Method Of Victory:
Round:

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Alright, again, there seems to be a miscommunication with confidence points.

Alright, there seems to be a major miscommunication on confidence points and how they work, despite a very clear description to give everyone an understanding on how they work.

Here's how I did confidence points for the Strikeforce card a couple weeks ago...

Strikeforce Heavyweight Championship
Alistair Overeem vs. Brett Rogers
Winner: Overeem (1)
Method of Victory: Submission
Round: 2

Andrei Arlovski vs. Antonio Silva
Winner: Arlovski (4)
Method of Victory: Strikes
Round: 2

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Joey Villasenor
Winner: Jacare (5)
Method of Victory: Submission
Round: 1

Roger Gracie vs. Kevin Randleman
Winner: Gracie (2)
Method of Victory: Submission
Round: 3

Antwain Britt vs. Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante
Winner: Britt (3)
Method of Victory: Strikes
Round: 2

I did confidence points for EVERY FIGHT. I gave Jacare the highest confidence points because I felt there would be no way that he would lose. I gave Alistair Overeem the least amount because I felt the Overeem/Rogers fight would have been close.

If you didn't include confidence points in your predictions or if you didn't assign them correctly, you won't get full credit.

Obviously these are important, because if you don't include confidence points, you could go from having every fight picked right, and still lose because if someone only got three fights right, they hypothetically still could win, because they assigned confidence points.

 

[JohnnyDrama]

I dont really understand the confidence points, even with the "explanation" its still confusing. if anything i would just put randoms numbers by the fights. Last time i didnt get it and this time i didnt get it so thats why wont be using them

 

[Rizza]

Dude, I would love to get in on this, I think I understand how it works. The confidence points are how sure I am on my pick. So out of six fights i would give my most confident fight a 6 and the closest fight a 1. Thats how it works right? If so then I get it. I just don't know how the scoring system works, or how much the confidences bonuses are worth. Besides that though, I think I'm in the know how.

 

[jmt225]

I dont really understand the confidence points, even with the "explanation" its still confusing. if anything i would just put randoms numbers by the fights. Last time i didnt get it and this time i didnt get it so thats why wont be using them

Okay, I'll run it down to you. Hopefully you and anyone else confused will understand after this.

For UFC 115, Guy has presented us with EIGHT fights. Let's say you're 100% positive that Chuck Liddell is going to beat Rich Franklin, then you should give Chuck the highest number of confidence points you can give someone, which is EIGHT because there are EIGHT fights.

Now, let's say you're really confident CroCop is going to beat Pat Berry. Then give CroCop SEVEN points, since you already used your eight points for Chuck Liddell. You cannot use the same number twice.

And finally, let's say you're completely uncertain who's going to win between Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann. You have literally no idea who to pick, but you go ahead and choose Paulo. In that case, you should give Paulo a low number of confident points, such as ONE or TWO.

You see? Out of the eight fights, you give confidence points to each one out of eight points, without ever using the same number twice.

Hopefully you get it now. If not, PM me and I'll try to walk you or anyone else through it who's still confused.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

That's exactly it, Rizza.

I'll take examples of three fights here (these aren't my predictions):

Here's the main event:

After doing my analysis, I hypothetically think that Liddell can beat Franklin, but I'm not too sure about it... so I'll throw four points on Liddell here, and I'll predict that he'll win in the third round, by strikes.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin
Winner: Liddell (4)
Method Of Victory: Strikes
Round: 3

So the most amount of points I can get for this fight is 6. If it winds up going to a decision, and he wins, then I'll only get 4 points (just because I picked the third round here, it doesn't mean that he won that round). If Chuck wins by Strikes in the second round, I get 5 points, because of the one bonus I scored correctly with Strikes.

For the Co-Main...

Patrick Barry vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
Winner: Cro Cop (8)
Method Of Victory: Strikes
Round: 1

For this example, I think that Cro Cop will win big. Therefore I'm putting the most confidence points available (8) on a Cro Cop win. So if Cro Cop won here, I'd get 8 points alone for that, and then the bonuses if I nailed those too.

Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald
Winner: MacDonald (1)
Method Of Victory: Decision

In this example, I have no idea who is going to win, because it's going to be real close. Therefore, I'm going to put one point on MacDonald here, because it's not worth risking a lot of confidence points on a fight that could go either way.

Hopefully this cleared up any underlying questions regarding confidence points.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Alright, again, we had 13 participants for this card, and having that many definitely makes this worth doing. With such a crappy card, I really wasn't expecting much participation, so this was a pleasant surprise.

The results...

I bombed, hard. Baller, on the other hand, turned in a great performance and will face Marquis for the Title for the TUF Finale card next Saturday night. FrozenTrash also did a great job, only losing by one point. Only one point separated Marquis and JMT, and we'll probably have a rematch between the two down the line.

Thanks to everyone for participating!

 

[Baller]

Alright I have a quick question because this could determine if I win or not. By method of victory I have been putting TKO, have I been getting credit for that or am I supposed to put strikes?

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Alright I have a quick question because this could determine if I win or not. By method of victory I have been putting TKO, have I been getting credit for that or am I supposed to put strikes?

You're supposed to put strikes, but a lot of people have been doing it that way so I just give credit for it. It's just that if there's ever a TKO by Submission (it happens), you won't get credit for it. It's why listing "Submission hold" is important, because there are submissions by strikes (verbal submission).

 

[Baller]

Alright will do from now on, thanks.

I don't feel too confident on predicting this as I havent watched The Ultimate Fighter since the first season.

 

[jmt225]

Man, if Danzig wouldn't have gotten screwed, I would have done MUCH better. I gave him the eight points, which of course was the most you could have given someone this card.

Also, Marquis and I's little battle came down to Ben Rothwell vs. Gilbert Yvel, and I stupidly put my money on the two-bit criminal. You know, the type of guy who fucking robs a bank, but forgets to fill his getaway car with gas. Seriously, fuck you Yvel. Hopefully his ass gets cut. Also, Rothwell is a worthless piece of shit as well. As great as the Heavyweight Division has been looking lately, those two are definitely the low spots of it.

 

[Final Form Snyper.]

I'll agree there, their match up looked sloppy, slow and un co-ordinated. It was like watching an amateur fight.

I was annoyed about the very early stoppage in the Danzig vs Wiman, but at the same time, the referee has a job to do and it's to make sure the safety of the fighters come first. It from his perspective could have looked as if Danzig went out, because Mac was reserving his gas tank.

 

[Boxer38]

Man. What's going on, my predictions were horrible, again.
Still pretty fun though.

Quick question, will you also be doing the contest for WEC and StrikeForce events?

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Man. What's going on, my predictions were horrible, again.
Still pretty fun though.

Quick question, will you also be doing the contest for WEC and StrikeForce events?

For any big WEC, absolutely. Jamie Varner is terrible though, and we have the TUF Finale next week, so not this time.

I might set one up for the Fedor Strikeforce card, but that will probably just be for fun. A lot of people don't really know or care about Strikeforce, but any Fedor card is a big one.

 

[Final Form Snyper.]

To me it's not a dislike, its the fact of Strikeforce having Fedor's balls in their mouth's. Everytime you hear his name, it just seems like they are trying to describe God or something. I guess in a way the same as how Brock was received in UFC when he first joined.

I'd do a Strikeforce prediction contest I think doing alot of a certain time determines a better score for the best person at predicting the fights. Not just have a 1 a month (or in this case 2) having more to work on helps determine the number 1 picker.

 

[Buffalo Dave]

Damn I finished right in the middle for the first two events. If I would've adjusted my confidence points a little better I would've been better off, but gave Thiago 8 points and Griffin 7. The only fight I got everything right was the Loiseau/Miranda fight and of course only gave Miranda 1 confidence point!

Thanks again to Guy for putting in the time to these, makes the fights a bit more interesting, hopefully we get a decent turnout for TUF 11 Finale.

 

[Boxer38]

For any big WEC, absolutely. Jamie Varner is terrible though, and we have the TUF Finale next week, so not this time.

I might set one up for the Fedor Strikeforce card, but that will probably just be for fun. A lot of people don't really know or care about Strikeforce, but any Fedor card is a big one.

Alright that's good, the only reason I brought it up was because of Fedor vs Werdum.


Another question sorry. Have you ever thought about having a Contest for Boxing fights, or is it just something that doesn't really interest you, or would be too hard too puzzle together?

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Probably not for boxing, mainly because I'm not really sure if the interest would be there. It would also be hard to call whether a fight would end by KO or Decision, and nailing the round for the bonus points would be a complete crapshoot.

IF Pacquiao vs. Mayweather ever takes place though, then maybe.