The Dragon's Second Chance

[Via Armbar]

Believe it or not, there are only five men in the history of the UFC to regain a championship they had lost in their respective weight class.

-Randy Couture
-Matt Hughes
-George St. Pierre
-Tim Sylvia
-Andrei Arlovski

That list excludes title wins that unified an interim title with the actual championship. That's a pretty short list and it's an even short list of who captured their second title from the same man that took it from them. Actually I believe that is a list of one; only GSP has regained a title from the man that had beaten him to win it. Second chances are hard to come by, let alone take advantage of. This is even more true when it comes to title fights.

The point I'm trying to make is one concerning Lyoto Machida. A pure fighting enigma. A man that many thought could go undefeated in his mixed martial arts career because of his unique style. Obviously that was not the case and Mauricio Shogun Rua (war shogun) would go on to knock Machida out and officially won the title that many thought he already won. Talks of a rubber match betweent he two surfaced immediately and if it weren't for an upcoming contender eliminator between Rampage and Rashad Evans, it could be a real possibility. So there will not be an immediate rematch with Shogun and he's going to have to earn another rematch.

He fights in a division with some of the best up and comers in the sport; Jon Jones, Ryan Bader and more not to mention a seasoned veteran who's new only to the UFC in Lil Nog. You also have gatekeepers in Griffin, Jardine and good tests in guys like Luiz Cane. Not to mentioned the always formidable Randy Couture. There is no shortage of guys for Machida to face at 205. The question is not only what does it take to earn that second title shot, but can he suceed in regaining the title when given the chance?

For me it's a yes and no answer. I don't think he can beat a healthy Shogun whether it's for the title or not. He may beat everyone up to that point, but don't see him having the power in his hands to knockout a man that has never been finished in terms of knockouts. Shogun has an amazing chin and has far too much power in his hands for Machida as evidence by their last fight. He doesn't have nearly enough submission skills either to submit Rua so really unless he were to win another decision, Shogun would take it everytime.

It's interesting how he would get there. He could probably beat Evans again and could out point Rampage bu couldn't knock him out. A match with Griffin would be unpredictable, as Forrest usually is. Really, I think he has the tools to beat anyone in the LHW division who isn't named Mauricio Rua. That's the problem though...Shogun can beat anyone in the division. So there is a glass ceiling stopping Machida from winning the title back. If Shogun happens to lose, there is almost anyone that Lyoto can beat. That is however...if Shogun loses.

We've seen the statistics and we have seen plenty from Machida to knwo what he's capable of. How could he make his way back up to a title shot and if he does...can he pull of a win?

 

[Dave]

Great thread, Armie.

After watching Shogun tear Machida apart on Saturday night, I would have been very surprised if a rematch was even close to being called. Many people thought Shogun had went over Machida in the first place and the second fight was nothing but emphatic. Shogun held his nerve and put Machida to the axe. I knew from the very moment that the fight was announced that Machida was going to have his hands full and that neither man would want to leave it in the hands of the judges again. That being said, I would like to see them fight again. It is clear that Machida can go with him. The initial fight was extremely close for me and it could have gone either way. To me, this illustrates that Machida can at least compete with Shogun.

However, after the second fight, I knew that it was going to be a struggle for him to get back into the title picture. He is 16-1 (I believe), so it is clear to me that he can beat whomever is thrown at him at 205. Whether that is Forrest Griffin or Rashad Evans, I can definitely see him winning those fights. I would suggest that it will be at least 3 more fights before we see Machida going at the title again and that is only if he manages to win all three. Personally, I would love to see him go with Griffin and then maybe Evans as a second fight, before fighting Couture, maybe. I think winning all three of those fights would get him back into the title picture and I think that Machida could take the belt off of him. His will only strengthen his resolve to take back the belt and might be the initiative he needs to do it.

Don't forget though, that Rua was apparently not at 100% before the fight and he still walked in and trounced Machida. At the end of the day, Shogun may be the best at 205 in a very long time and I would love to see a more competitive fight between him and Machida again.

 

[jmt225]

To me, it all depends if Rampage or Rashad can beat Shogun. If either of those two do and Machida gets a shot, then I think he could beat either of them. However, if Shogun holds has a long reign with the title, or if Anderson Silva is the one to knock him off his throne, then Machida will not be champion again for a very long time, if ever.

I believe Machida can defeat anyone in and around the Light Heavyweight division besides Shogun and Anderson Silva. At least, right now that's my belief (there's a part of me that wants to believe that Jon Jones will be unbeatable after another year and a half). And that definitely includes Rampage. Rampage is vulnerable against elusive fighters like Machida and if Tito Ortiz couldn't take Machida down, then Rampage wouldn't be able to, either. And of course Machida has already defeated Rashad Evans, so there's no reason to believe he wouldn't be able to do so again.

And what's funny is that I do believe that Rampage and Rashad could beat Shogun. Now, I think Shogun is a better fighter than both of those guys, but I just don't put it past Rampage and Rashad to lay 'n pray their way to victory against someone like Shogun, whose takedown defense isn't bad, but it's not great either.

So, yeah... I do think it's possible Machida will see that Light Heavyweight Championship around his waist once more in his career, but nevertheless... I'm putting all my chips on Shogun, Anderson Silva, and/or Jon Jones to rule the division for at least the next 3 years, if not 5 or even 10 (considering if it's Jones, who's so young he could be dominate the sport for up to 15 years if he continue what he's doing).

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Machida can beat almost any other light-heavyweight in the division. He can beat Rashad, we know that for sure. I think Rampage would get suckered into Machida's strategy and be overaggressive, which would allow Machida to catch him with enough to work his way to a victory or a surprise knockout. I think he can beat Lil' Nog, and he can certainly beat Forrest Griffin, who I truly believe is one of the most overrated fighters currently in the UFC. I think he could beat Jon Jones right now, but if he keeps progressing like he has been, chances are he'll be able to beat Machida soon enough.

For me it's a yes and no answer. I don't think he can beat a healthy Shogun whether it's for the title or not. He may beat everyone up to that point, but don't see him having the power in his hands to knockout a man that has never been finished in terms of knockouts. Shogun has an amazing chin and has far too much power in his hands for Machida as evidence by their last fight. He doesn't have nearly enough submission skills either to submit Rua so really unless he were to win another decision, Shogun would take it everytime.

Let's call a spade a spade here, he couldn't even beat a Shogun who almost had to be pulled out of the fight because of his appendectomy. Meltzer reported something VERY interesting where the main event of 113 was very close to being Machida vs. Couture for the title:

Although I was skeptical when the story first broke, it’s pretty well been confirmed that Rua underwent an appendectomy eight weeks ago that was kept quiet. Randy Couture was on stand-by for a title shot at Machida in case Rua wouldn’t be ready. Couture had been told six weeks ago that he might get the title shot because of an issue with one of the fighters. They must have improved appendectomy’s in Brazil because he didn’t have a scar on him and there is no way possible he could have had the style of appendectomy in the U.S. and been able to train for a fight that quickly. The story was it was done through arthroscopic surgery through the belly button. I wasn’t even allowed to lift anything over 25 pounds for two months and had a setback just doing light running at the six week mark. Matt Hardy came back in a couple of months from a similar surgery to do worked pro wrestling and also ended up having a setback from coming back too quickly. When he found out, White told him he should pull out and he insisted on fighting. The story is that he couldn’t train for four weeks after the surgery, and got ready for the fight in three weeks, so he wasn’t even in top shape. He was lucky the fight didn’t last long, as he won the title via knockout in 3:35.

#1. Matt Hardy should never be a benchmark for an injury recovery.
#2. Shogun only had three weeks to really prepare for this fight. The fact that the appendectomy was managed to be kept under the radar is nothing short of a miracle.
#3. He was clearly not 100%, and he absolutely dominated Machida. He has solved him, and is absolutely his Achilles Heel.

Honestly, I don't think there will be a rubber match between the two. Shogun beat Machida the first time, and he very clearly dominated him in the second fight. There's no reason to believe he'd have a chance to beat him if they fought again. Shogun clearly has his number, and a third fight would most likely not be that appealing to most fans.

I think Shogun is back and can beat any light-heavyweight the UFC could throw at him, including Jon Jones. He's going to have quite a run with the title.

And what's funny is that I do believe that Rampage and Rashad could beat Shogun. Now, I think Shogun is a better fighter than both of those guys, but I just don't put it past Rampage and Rashad to lay 'n pray their way to victory against someone like Shogun, whose takedown defense isn't bad, but it's not great either.

I don't know man, after rewatching Shogun vs. Rampage the other night, and with Shogun absolutely being back at PRIDE-era form, I think it would unfold much like the first fight did, with Shogun just absolutely destroying him. I think Rashad would try to lay and pray, but Shogun is just too explosive for him and would avoid the takedowns. If it took "punches that were like pillows" for Machida to beat Rashad (Rashad's own words), then I can only imagine what Shogun could throw at Rashad to knock him out.

Machida could work his way back to the title, but the road for the title will absolutely stop at Shogun, who is so young still (28) that he could easily be on top for at least another 7 years. With Machida showing an inability to really get the better of Shogun, as long as Cecil Peoples and some other ******ed judge like Adelaide Byrd isn't juding a potential rubbermatch, Shogun is going to win each and every time.