I don't think it's nearly that cut & dry because we know how Vince is sometimes. While it's nobody's fault that Balor was injured, it's just one of those things that happens sometimes, it happened right when he was given a huge push and when, in Vince's mind, he was gambling on putting Raw's new top title on someone who'd only been on the main roster few weeks. With that being said, Balor got hurt and whatever plans WWE had at the time had to be scrapped and changed; they took a chance on Balor and it didn't pan out or, at least, I won't be at all surprised if that's Vince's perspective.
Upon his return, Balor will be in the Universal Championship picture to begin with, but he many not be kept there because getting injured so soon MIGHT generate doubts among some top officials. Vince may want to put him lower on the card, such as what we've seen with Sami Zayn, to gauge how well he does over the long haul and see if his body holds up. Then, if he gets over in this new spot, there's a real chance of him heading back to the main event spot. The reverse is also true, however, and Vince may have lots of faith in Balor and has for a long time now; as a result, MAYBE Balor could find himself right back in the main event spot. Vince threw us a curve ball right from the start by having Balor become the first Universal Champion, Roman Reigns might have gotten it had he not gotten in trouble but that's neither here nor there because one man's misfortune is another man's opportunity. Vince's moods and mind set can be unpredictable at times, so it's just too early to tell with Balor.
However, the notion of Balor being in the Cruiserweight Division is far from laughable. Balor's bread & butter for over a decade has been wrestling as a cruiserweight in Japan; the man's a 4 time IWGP Junior Heavyweight Champion and 6 time IWGP Junior Heavyweight Tag Team Champion. His work in New Japan's Junior Heavyweight Division is what got WWE's attention in the first place. When Balor hit the main roster, I honestly felt that Vince would want to increase his billed weight because there were only a few wrestlers at the time on the main roster who were billed at being under 200 lbs. and Balor is legitimately about 190 lbs., that's what he's been billed at in NXT and it's what he's still billed at on the main roster. I figured that Vince would want to bump him up to 205 or 210 at least.