Royal Rumble by the numbers - The Runner Up

[NotoriousMEAT]

There's an interesting statistic to the Royal Rumble they never include in those little Royal Rumble stat video's every year. And that's the success rate of the Royal Rumble Runner Up!

Let's look at the numbers

-Excluding the 2013 Royal Rumble, there have been 10 Royal Rumbles since the inception of the World Heavyweight Championship in 2002.

-Out of those 10 Royal Rumble matches, 7 of the Runner Ups have also gone on to WrestleMania to compete for a World Title.
2005: John Cena
2006: Triple H
2007: Shawn Michaels
2008: Triple H
2009: Triple H (defended WWE Championship at WM 25)
2010: John Cena
2012: Chris Jericho

-The only three Runner Ups to not end up in a World Title match were The Undertaker in 2003, The Big Show in 2004, and Santino Marella in 2011.

-However, Royal Rumbler Runner Ups are only 3-4 in championship bouts. And only twice has the Runner Up walked out of WrestleMania as Champion where the Royal Rumble winner did not, (Triple H at WrestleMania 25 and John Cena at WrestleMania 26).

Being the last man eliminated from the Royal Rumble is one of the most heartbreaking losses a WWE Superstar can experience. It's also one of the most beneficial losses in sports entertainment.

Based on the numbers alone, there's a 70% chance that Ryback challenges for the World Heavyweight Championship at WrestleMania XXIX. But when ya flip the coin, he's only got a 42% chance of actually leaving with the gold on April 7th.


Will Ryback become World Heavyweight Champion at WrestleMania XXIX?

 

[zhaff2004]

great analysis... The focus always seems to be on the winner, never the runner up... safe to say that if Ryback goes to mania to fight for the belt, 42% becomes 50%

 

[WrestlingSabermetrics]

Awesome work!

Alberto Del Rio is currently face as is Ryback, so maybe Alberto Del Rio loses the belt at Elimination Chamber somehow? I think Ryback fighting for the WHC at WM 29 would be great. I wonder who he would face though.

 

[Bland]

I would love to see ryback challenge for the WHC at mania. However I can see it happening as del rio is a face & if they wanted him to face show then show would of won at the rumble.

I cant see show winning the chamber as everyone would team up on him so the other possibility would be having ziggler cash in MITB. But then I can't see ziggler vs ryback, it would be Jericho or del rio.

The only other possibiltu would be if they did bring back MITB ladder match at mania. It would be funny to see ziggler cash in on a tied del rio only for ryback to cash in his newly won case. We would not only see the 1st cash in at mania but the 1st double cash in and perhaps shortest WHC reign in years.

 

[Big Tim]

I have a feeling that this year will be one of the few years where the runner up doesn't get the title match at Wrestlemania. I wish Ryback would. I really like him, but I want to see him facing Big Show at Wrestlemania, World Title or not. I see the World Heavyweight Championship match being Randy Orton vs. Sheamus, with the current champ Del Rio facing off against someone in the Shield. There really aren't many options for Del Rio, so that one seems the most plausible.

So in conclusion;
Sheamus vs. Randy Orton for WHC, Alberto Del Rio vs. Seth Rollins/Roman Reigns/Dean Ambrose, and Ryback vs. Big Show

 

[Max_Power]

Great post! This actually had crossed my mind recently or something similar to these lines but I never did the proper research.

One small thing is that Randy Orton was runner up in 2006 not Triple H. Even though he too was in the World Title Match.

Will be very interesting to see but I just can't see how they're going to squeeze Ryback in at the moment. I think it's more likely Sheamus (2nd runner-up) will be in the World Title Match

 

[Brewski]

Nice thread! I never even really thought about it but it does seem the runner up gets a pretty nice push. I don't see Rybak challenging for the title at 'mania, but I do see him in the WHC picture very soon.

 

[NotoriousMEAT]

One small thing is that Randy Orton was runner up in 2006 not Triple H. Even though he too was in the World Title Match.

Wow your right. I just remember Rey eliminating Triple H. I forgot he eliminated Randy 5 seconds later. Both Orton and Triple H did end up in title matches though, and they both lost. So the statistics are still the same. Good catch though!

 

[samfeeley34]

It seems to make sense that Ryback would make an impact on Raw move to Smackdown grow a bit more and join the WHC fight. They do this a lot. Edge, Sheamus and Dolph Ziggler all made names on SmackDown.

 

[LODemolition]

That's a great stat, man. I only see it happening this year if somehow Big Show wins at EC and Ryback challenges him. I do think those 2 will end up in a match at Mania, just not for the title. Del Rio is having a very good run so far and after another successful title defense at EC, he will either walk in to Mania as champ or Ziggler will cash in directly after the match.

 

[LODemolition]

It seems to make sense that Ryback would make an impact on Raw move to Smackdown grow a bit more and join the WHC fight. They do this a lot. Edge, Sheamus and Dolph Ziggler all made names on SmackDown.

Ryback definitely belongs on Smackdown, I've been saying this for a while. What other top faces will they have after Orton turns heel? There's Del Rio and Sheamus. That's about it.

 

[#MrScissorsKick]

I really like these statistics that the WWE puts out when it comes to Rumble time. However I wish they'd do this more often but i can see why the WWE does it only for the RR. As for the OP's question, Ryback winning a world title this year? I want to jump out and say yes but realistically i think the obvious answer is no he won't. If there was a time where Ryback was "ready" for a World Title, it was HIAC 2012. However, with the Rock pre-booked to win the title at this years RR it wasn't to be. That said, I wouldn't mind seeing Ryback as a World Champ. But I just can't see it happening unfortunately.