I don't think the title will change hands many times this year, I'm thinking there'll be maybe 3 at the most. Just on sheer guess work, if I had to rank on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being virtually no chance & 10 being virtually guaranteed a run this year, I think the top guys in WWE would rank as follows
John Cena: 9.0 - I put Cena at a 9 because...well he's John Cena. He's always going to be a top prospect for winning the title again whenever he has an opportunity. The problem with Cena is a near inescapable one, however, as there are so very, very, very few programs he can work that'd feel fresh. After all, Cena's been there so much and so consistently that it's natural for some to be tired of it. Cena deserves to be there, don't get me wrong on that, but I do understand some are bored with it.
CM Punk: 9.5 - Unless he's already signed an extension or another deal, CM Punk's current contract is set to expire this summer sometime around MITB. Punk's valuable to WWE and everyone knows it. WWE wants Punk to remain with the company, so I think they'll be doing whatever they can to keep him happy. For instance, I think the reason that AJ wasn't punished over her outburst backstage at the Tribute to the Troops taping is because she's dating Punk and they want Punk happy. I'll be surprised if Punk isn't WWE World Heavyweight Champion at some point this year.
Daniel Bryan: 8.0 - Daniel Bryan is the most over babyface in WWE right now. People WANT to cheer for him and to see him succeed. When it comes to a fresh face in the title picture, there's no one on the roster that can bring that with the same level of interest to the table as Daniel Bryan. For instance, I know that people want to see a full blown feud with Bryan & Cena. I don't know if WWE management is reluctant to put Bryan in that spot or if they're simply waiting for the right time. Bryan suffering a concussion this past Monday might jeopardize a potential main event push, depending on the severity and how long he's expected to be out. Otherwise, I might rank him even higher. Concussions halted the pushes of Fandango & Dolph Ziggler but, at the same time, neither of them is anywhere close to being as over as Bryan.
Batista: 9.0 - Unfortunately, I think Batista is a very strong candidate for who'll ultimately take the title from Orton at WrestleMania. Personally, I think Batista is a bit overrated. He has a great look but, aside from that, I've never really seen or heard anything out of the guy, overall, that I found to be particularly impressive or special. But, with him coming back to WWE and having a big role in a big budget movie this summer, I can see Vince salivating at the possibility of Batista being WWE World Heavyweight Champion while he's out there hyping & promoting that movie.
Brock Lesnar: 6.0 - The only reason I ranked Lesnar even that high is because of his star power. Lesnar pops up only a few handfuls of time a year and wrestles even less than that, so the notion of him being WWE World Heavyweight Champion just isn't all that plausible. Now that there's only one World Champion, I don't see WWE house shows going for months at a time without a title match to headline it. I don't see the point of putting the title on Lesnar in the next month or so just to have him drop it at WrestleMania. It'd already give away the ending of the WM title match, just like with Cena vs. Rock II last year.
Alberto Del Rio: 3.5 - Del Rio's been a World Champion 4 times in WWE thus far, but he's just not nearly as over as WWE would want. He's been given several opportunities and while he's frequently able to put together strong matches, he just can't connect with fans on a level that a main event heel should. With only one World Championship now and 4 reigns behind him, I think Del Rio's time as champ is over.
Roman Reigns: 7.0 - While Reigns still remains pretty untested as a singles wrestler, I think there's a pretty good chance of him being champ sometime this year. Several weeks back, when The Shield were in the ring discussing who'd take on Punk that night, Reigns was getting a pretty good chant from the crowd. When he was tagged in for the first time in the six man tag bout this past Monday against Punk and the New Age Outlaws, he also got a pretty decent pop. If Reigns can impress enough during his singles run and can ultimately hold his own beyond a handful of words on the mic, he might pull it off this year.
Dean Ambrose: 5.0 - I think Ambrose falls somewhere right in the middle. I don't think he'll be champ this year, but there's at least some fair possibility that he might. Of The Shield, he's shown to be the strongest on the mic so far and can tell a good story in the ring.
Seth Rollins: 5.0 - I'd put Rollins on equal footing with Ambrose in likelihood of being champ this year. Rollins is someone who comes off as a workhorse, someone that can be counted on for great matches. He's pretty good on the mic himself and is a strong, overall guy inside the ring. I think it likely that Rollins would be a mid-card champ before really having a chance at being WWE WHC.
Big E. Langston: 7.0 - Langston has a good deal of support from WWE management and he's worked hard. In my opinion, he's come a long way over the past year or so. If he's able to garner a strong run as IC champ, which I think he's done a pretty decent job thus far, it could lead to a title run this year.
Big Show: 3 - I think the days of Big Show being a main event champion are over. I don't think Show gets enough credit for how hard he works in the ring, especially the past few years after getting into better shape physically. Show's almost 42 years old and with so many younger & fresher guys on their way up, it just doesn't seem likely that Show will have another run.
Mark Henry: 3.5 - I've said many times that I don't understand why WWE didn't start doing what they were doing with Henry back in 2011 a decade earlier. Henry's a genuinely intimidating presence and his work overall the past 2.5 years has been pretty damn fantastic. However, Henry's 42 years old and he's been having issues regarding injuries for well over a year now. Henry's a guy that's spent nearly all his life lifting very heavy weights and he's genuinely around 400 pounds. Factor that in with Henry's age and his best days are probably behind him. As with Show, there are just a lot of much younger guys that seem to be on their way up.
Sheamus: 6.5 - I think Sheamus has a somewhat fair shot at winning the title again this year, though not a particularly great shot. If Sheamus comes back as a heel, a role in which I think he's infinitely better, I could see him feuding with a big bruiser like Batista over the title. More likely though, I think it'd be more likely to see Sheamus feuding with Big E. over the IC title.
