So, you've probably heard a lot about Honduras on the news lately. Since June 26, the country has been in a political upheaval regarding the ousting of the President, Manuel Zalaya, by the military and Congress's institution of an interim President, Roberto Micheletti. Here's the full story.
Zalaya, formerly a wealthy businessman, was elected in 2005 from the Liberal Party, and has been a staunch defended of labor unions and the lower class, which has earned him, obviously, huge support from that class and some ire from the middle and upper classes. Some have gone as far as to accuse him of being a borderline socialist, and more or less Honduras's version of Chavez. Zalaya's extreme leftism and tight relationship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has alienated him from his own party and pretty much driven away the majority of his governmental support, and a vast majority of the people (he was running about a 25% approval rating before the coup). Another major facet of Zalaya's administration was an adverse relationship with the media, again, similar to Chavez. There have been accusations of "subtle censorship" by the OAS (Organization of American States) by way of the government financially supporting government supportive media outlets. As I mentioned before, labor unions and the lower class are big on Zalaya, while the middle and upper class are not. Zalaya, therefore, wasn't terribly popular: The Economist reported that "Mr Zelayas presidency has been marked by a rise in crime, corruption scandals and economic populism." All in all, a good majority of the population agreed that prior to the coup, Zalaya was not a particularly good or popular President.
The roots of all this go back to November, when Zalaya intended to introduce a fourth ballot in the general elections of November 2009. The typical three ballots are for the Presidential, congressional, and local elections. The fourth was intended to be a referendum to ask the citizens of Honduras if they wanted to hold a National Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution. The reasons for this differ from who you listen to. Anti Zalaya thought is that he wanted to eliminate term limits, hence allowing him to serve a second term as President (currently, Presidents are only allowed to serve one term in Honduras). However, considering Zalaya's popularity, one has to wonder how that could have been his motive. He couldn't really have thought he'd be reelected, would he? And that's exactly what he said, that he wouldn't be elected anyway, and instead wanted to give the people of Honduras a chance to revise the Constitution in a way that supported modern times and thought.
Well, Zalaya wanted to hold a poll to the general public to see about including the ballot in the November election, which Congress rejected, saying that it could lead to changing of certain "entrenched" parts of the Constitution, and further saying that the Constitution can only legally be changed by a 2/3 vote of Congress. Hence, they declared any such referendum illegal, and any poll about it was therefore illegal as well. They also referenced Article 239 of the Honduran Constitution, enacted to prevent "continuismo", which is an executive head of state serving "continuously", i.e., without term limits. This is a big deal in Latin America, because of their history of dictators. This is what Congress said was Zalaya's motives for the referendum, and thus struck it down as unconstitutional.
So, obviously, this strained Zalaya/Congress relations hugely and led to Congress trying to figure out how to remove Zalaya from office. Zalaya basically told Congress to fuck off and went to the military, who is in charge of security and logistics, and asked for them to help him hold the poll anyway. The head of the military, General Romeo Vásquez Velásquez, said no, on the grounds that the Supreme Court had declared the poll illegal and unconstitutional. Zalaya then removed him from office, but the Supreme Court reinstated him soon after. Zalaya staged a citizen protest to get the materials, but failed.
So, with all this, the Honduran Attorney General issued an order for Zalaya's arrest on June 25, and on the 26, the Supreme Court issued an order for capture of Zalaya on the grounds of acting against the government, treason, abuse of authority, and usurpation of power. On June 28, soldiers stormed the Presidential palace and captured Zalaya, then putting him on a plane to Costa Rica. The military said that it was fast, clean, and respectful, while Zalaya claimed it was forceful and somewhat violent, saying his guards were assaulted and calling the incident a coup and a kidnapping. There was basically martial law for a day and the news media was shut down. The Supreme Court announced that it had ordered the military to remove Zalaya from office, and the military reported that they had removed Zalaya from the country to prevent bloodshed.
Congress later officially removed Zalaya from office and appointed Roberto Micheletti, President of the National Congress, as Acting President. Micheletti immediately smacked down a curfew and suspended several constitutional rights. This was followed by heavy protesting (mostly nonviolent or else with little violence - to my knowledge, only one man has been killed so far and there's a few injuries). The protesting has been both for and against Zalaya, but due to the nigh elimination of all pro Zalaya media, only the anti Zalayans are getting real coverage within Honduras.
The coup has been almost universally denounced by major world organizations and world nations. No one has recognized the acting Honduran government, and they've been suspended from the OAS. The world is unanimously calling for the reinstatement of Zalaya (whose popularity has skyrocketed since being ousted). Zalaya has tried to return to the country, but has failed. The Honduran government says they are absolutely in the right and will not budge, while the world demands the reinstatement of Zalaya. Zalaya says he wants to return peacefully and will forgive those who opposed him. As it stands right now, it's pretty much a stalemate - just today impartial mediation was accepted by Zalaya, and that might lead somewhere. The media is still shut down and certain rights are still suspended.
So what's the real story? There's a couple theories. One, which isn't popular worldwide, obviously, is that Zalaya really was a treasonous bastard who wanted to extend his term as President. I doubt it - there's no way he'd have been reelected. Another theory is that Zalaya is the people's champion and was trying to give them a fair shake at making a better constitution - this seems to be the popular worldwide theory. Álvaro Vargas Llosa, who's somewhat of an expert on this type of thing, I'm told, has suggested this was all an elaborate plan by Hugo Chavez and Zalaya to remold themselves from near socialists into democratic champions, and it's working. Tons of Hondurans love Zalaya now, and Chavez is his staunchest supporter, thus he looks great out of it as well. I'm a fan of this theory, personally - Zalaya was never a particularly good guy to the general public (to the poor, yes, but to the middle class, no), nor was he popular enough to get a second term. The idea of turning himself into a democratic champion must have appealed to him, and Chavez is a pretty intelligent fellow, so I can see how they might have laid down this plan. Of course, there's also accusations of CIA Involvement (when isn't there) because the top army officials in Honduras are US trained. I can see how it might benefit the US - having Zalaya ousted then leading the efforts to reinstate him would create an ally in Central and South America, as well as a closer connection to Chavez, who we have an interest in keeping an eye (since he controls a huge part of the foreign oil we receive).
So what do you think? Zalaya - power hungry maniac? Champion of the common man? Nefarious plotter? CIA dummy? Something else entirely? What do you think of the Honduran coup?
Zalaya, formerly a wealthy businessman, was elected in 2005 from the Liberal Party, and has been a staunch defended of labor unions and the lower class, which has earned him, obviously, huge support from that class and some ire from the middle and upper classes. Some have gone as far as to accuse him of being a borderline socialist, and more or less Honduras's version of Chavez. Zalaya's extreme leftism and tight relationship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has alienated him from his own party and pretty much driven away the majority of his governmental support, and a vast majority of the people (he was running about a 25% approval rating before the coup). Another major facet of Zalaya's administration was an adverse relationship with the media, again, similar to Chavez. There have been accusations of "subtle censorship" by the OAS (Organization of American States) by way of the government financially supporting government supportive media outlets. As I mentioned before, labor unions and the lower class are big on Zalaya, while the middle and upper class are not. Zalaya, therefore, wasn't terribly popular: The Economist reported that "Mr Zelayas presidency has been marked by a rise in crime, corruption scandals and economic populism." All in all, a good majority of the population agreed that prior to the coup, Zalaya was not a particularly good or popular President.
The roots of all this go back to November, when Zalaya intended to introduce a fourth ballot in the general elections of November 2009. The typical three ballots are for the Presidential, congressional, and local elections. The fourth was intended to be a referendum to ask the citizens of Honduras if they wanted to hold a National Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution. The reasons for this differ from who you listen to. Anti Zalaya thought is that he wanted to eliminate term limits, hence allowing him to serve a second term as President (currently, Presidents are only allowed to serve one term in Honduras). However, considering Zalaya's popularity, one has to wonder how that could have been his motive. He couldn't really have thought he'd be reelected, would he? And that's exactly what he said, that he wouldn't be elected anyway, and instead wanted to give the people of Honduras a chance to revise the Constitution in a way that supported modern times and thought.
Well, Zalaya wanted to hold a poll to the general public to see about including the ballot in the November election, which Congress rejected, saying that it could lead to changing of certain "entrenched" parts of the Constitution, and further saying that the Constitution can only legally be changed by a 2/3 vote of Congress. Hence, they declared any such referendum illegal, and any poll about it was therefore illegal as well. They also referenced Article 239 of the Honduran Constitution, enacted to prevent "continuismo", which is an executive head of state serving "continuously", i.e., without term limits. This is a big deal in Latin America, because of their history of dictators. This is what Congress said was Zalaya's motives for the referendum, and thus struck it down as unconstitutional.
So, obviously, this strained Zalaya/Congress relations hugely and led to Congress trying to figure out how to remove Zalaya from office. Zalaya basically told Congress to fuck off and went to the military, who is in charge of security and logistics, and asked for them to help him hold the poll anyway. The head of the military, General Romeo Vásquez Velásquez, said no, on the grounds that the Supreme Court had declared the poll illegal and unconstitutional. Zalaya then removed him from office, but the Supreme Court reinstated him soon after. Zalaya staged a citizen protest to get the materials, but failed.
So, with all this, the Honduran Attorney General issued an order for Zalaya's arrest on June 25, and on the 26, the Supreme Court issued an order for capture of Zalaya on the grounds of acting against the government, treason, abuse of authority, and usurpation of power. On June 28, soldiers stormed the Presidential palace and captured Zalaya, then putting him on a plane to Costa Rica. The military said that it was fast, clean, and respectful, while Zalaya claimed it was forceful and somewhat violent, saying his guards were assaulted and calling the incident a coup and a kidnapping. There was basically martial law for a day and the news media was shut down. The Supreme Court announced that it had ordered the military to remove Zalaya from office, and the military reported that they had removed Zalaya from the country to prevent bloodshed.
Congress later officially removed Zalaya from office and appointed Roberto Micheletti, President of the National Congress, as Acting President. Micheletti immediately smacked down a curfew and suspended several constitutional rights. This was followed by heavy protesting (mostly nonviolent or else with little violence - to my knowledge, only one man has been killed so far and there's a few injuries). The protesting has been both for and against Zalaya, but due to the nigh elimination of all pro Zalaya media, only the anti Zalayans are getting real coverage within Honduras.
The coup has been almost universally denounced by major world organizations and world nations. No one has recognized the acting Honduran government, and they've been suspended from the OAS. The world is unanimously calling for the reinstatement of Zalaya (whose popularity has skyrocketed since being ousted). Zalaya has tried to return to the country, but has failed. The Honduran government says they are absolutely in the right and will not budge, while the world demands the reinstatement of Zalaya. Zalaya says he wants to return peacefully and will forgive those who opposed him. As it stands right now, it's pretty much a stalemate - just today impartial mediation was accepted by Zalaya, and that might lead somewhere. The media is still shut down and certain rights are still suspended.
So what's the real story? There's a couple theories. One, which isn't popular worldwide, obviously, is that Zalaya really was a treasonous bastard who wanted to extend his term as President. I doubt it - there's no way he'd have been reelected. Another theory is that Zalaya is the people's champion and was trying to give them a fair shake at making a better constitution - this seems to be the popular worldwide theory. Álvaro Vargas Llosa, who's somewhat of an expert on this type of thing, I'm told, has suggested this was all an elaborate plan by Hugo Chavez and Zalaya to remold themselves from near socialists into democratic champions, and it's working. Tons of Hondurans love Zalaya now, and Chavez is his staunchest supporter, thus he looks great out of it as well. I'm a fan of this theory, personally - Zalaya was never a particularly good guy to the general public (to the poor, yes, but to the middle class, no), nor was he popular enough to get a second term. The idea of turning himself into a democratic champion must have appealed to him, and Chavez is a pretty intelligent fellow, so I can see how they might have laid down this plan. Of course, there's also accusations of CIA Involvement (when isn't there) because the top army officials in Honduras are US trained. I can see how it might benefit the US - having Zalaya ousted then leading the efforts to reinstate him would create an ally in Central and South America, as well as a closer connection to Chavez, who we have an interest in keeping an eye (since he controls a huge part of the foreign oil we receive).
So what do you think? Zalaya - power hungry maniac? Champion of the common man? Nefarious plotter? CIA dummy? Something else entirely? What do you think of the Honduran coup?
