Fabricio Werdum's Title Chances

[Turd Ferguson]

I think what impressed me the most last night at UFC 143 was the vast improvement in Fabricio Werdum's striking. Werdum is getting up there in age (34 years old), and I thought that he'd be nothing more than an elite level gatekeeper in his return to the UFC, which is nothing to be ashamed about. I just didn't think he'd be able to evolve from being a pure BJJ guy.

I was sure that the fight with Roy Nelson would be a standup battle. I thought Roy would neutralize Werdum's BJJ, and he proved that theory correct early in the fight. I thought from there, Nelson would have the edge on the feet, where Nelson has shown devastating KO power, and Werdum has gotten rocked in the past and wanted nothing to do with Overeem at all standing in their fight last year. Werdum's standup has also always been pretty rudimentary.

Last night, he battered the bejeezus out of Big Country for three rounds. He dished out some devastating knees and showcased some elite level Muay Thai. The only reason why Roy didn't get KO'ed is because he has a granite chin. Fabricio Werdum is a legit Top 5 Heavyweight. What's scary is that he might be the most complete fighter in the Heavyweight Division.

What he does have going against him, and this is a pretty big obstacle for him, is that he lost to Dos Santos in a minute, and his fight against Overeem will best be remembered for this:

Needless to say, the UFC is going to have a tough time marketing a rematch when Werdum already got lit up by Dos Santos (in his UFC debut no less), and literally nobody wants to see another Overeem vs. Werdum fight.

However, I think a fight against Frank Mir makes a lot of sense for both guys, and with how both guys are pretty similar, I think it would be a great fight.

It's just a shame that Werdum is pretty much between a rock and a hard place for his title aspirations. Do you see him getting a title shot in 2012?

 

[Fizzy]

All depends. The guy has what it takes to be a champion. Nobody in the division can hang with him on the ground, he's translated his fantastic BJJ to MMA nearly flawlessly and now that his striking is coming into it's own, he is going to give serious problems to anybody in the division. I'd easily buy a rematch with JDS, for their first fight, Werdum came in incredibly out of shape and seemed like he didn't even want to fight. I memory serves, he was holding out for a new contract or something. Anyway, that was far from the best Werdum and i'd give him a decent shot in the rematch if he keeps improving his striking. Against Overeem however, that's another story. I never want to see that fight again.

 

[jmt225]

Ever since Werdum beat Fedor, I've consistently said he's a top 5 ranked Heavyweight fighter in MMA, even after the Overeem loss. I knew his stand-up was drastically improving, while his ground game of course is the absolute best in the Heavyweight Division.

Honestly, I think Overeem is the only Heavyweight in the UFC right now that can defeat Werdum. JDS I would give a good chance to, but we have to see him in his next fight. If JDS has lost some mobility, then he doesn't stand a chance against Werdum. JDS is a boxer with great takedown defense... however, if he's lost a step, Werdum should have no problem getting the fight in the clinch and beating him up there, eventually tripping him down and putting him away.

The reason I don't give Werdum the edge against Overeem is because no matter how much Werdum's striking improves in and outside of the clinch, Overeem is and forever will be the greatest clinch fighter in MMA. You cannot beat him at his own game, nor could Werdum ever get Overeem to the ground. We saw that in their fight in Strikeforce, and if they fought again it would be exactly the same.

So, yeah... I see Werdum beating his next opponent (either Mir or Cain), and then if JDS touches Overeem's glass jaw, then he'll have a very good chance of becoming UFC Champion. And I wouldn't mind it one bit. Werdum is a great fighter with great heart, and also a great human being on top of that. He deserves all the success he can get in this sport while he can.

 

[BaconBits]

I think Fabricio could absolutely become champ in the current heavyweight landscape. He has shown rapid improvement in his striking in the past couple years. He would have beaten Overeem too if he had been willing to stand in the pocket instead of flopping to his back every time he got hit. I mean, he was lighting the Reem up pretty resoundingly on the feet. Especially because the Reem has shown he wilts when the fight is brought to him.

I think he's got a good chance of beating JDS if they meet again too. His striking has improved light years since then and I think JDS might take the fight too lightly, considering he has already knocked Werdum out. I mean, JDS took Roy Nelson too lightly, so it's very possible it's problem with him.

 

[JWGunslinger]

If he keeps winning big fights then they can't deny him, the HW division is ever growing but still pretty small, and behind JDS and Reem you have Frank and Cain as contenders. If he can beat either of them(the fight with Frank would be amazing) then that would be a big enough win in my eyes to be next in line, we just have to hope that Dana thinks so. But Fabricio is without a doubt one of the best, I've been a fan of his since his fight with Gonzaga when Gabe was at the top of his game, and back then he still beat him with shitty stand up. He's really been improving his striking since the Bigfoot fight, he do enough with it in the Overeem fight but he's had it for a while now, last night it all came together. Couple those skills with his ground game and you have one dangerous SOB, Dana may screw us and have him fight the winner of Kongo-Hunt or something but I say give him Frank and go from there, I don't see him beating JDS unless he gets it down fast but I could see him beating Reem in a rematch. Vai Cavalo!

 

[Kasey]

A motivated and properly cornered Werdum is indeed a lethal weapon. I've said this even as far back as when he was in line for a title shot and screwed the pooch against JDS and showed up looking like he'd spent ample time at the buffet instead of the gym. His great equalizer is that his ground game is second-to-none in the division and that if Master Cordeiro and Dida are cornering him, he's definitely race-ready and has his best chance against some of the other heavies in the UFC. The only problem he'll have is against guys who can stop the takedown and will exploit some of the holes in his standup game (and they still exist).

He actually got lucky against Overeem, in that Alistair didn't get to run for nearly a month before the fight due to a bum toe and he showed up already running on fumes come fight time. A fully rested and cardio-loaded Overeem had more than enough chances to punch his ticket down the stretch. I'm anxious to see what would happen with Fabricio in a fight against Mir, though. That, I think, will prove to be a more than adequate litmus test to help determine Werdum's true place in the heavyweight pecking order.