Voting statistics through Round 5

Discussion in 'General WZ Tournament Discussion' started by Davi323, May 24, 2012.

  1. Davi323

    Davi323 semi-retired from WZ

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2007
    Messages:
    2,281
    Likes Received:
    703
    Just for fun, I compiled the voting statistics for the 4 remaining wrestlers in the Tournament...

    Total Votes Cast through 5 rounds (Wrestler/Opponent)
    Undertaker: 422-138
    Thesz: 336-168
    Rock: 389-130
    Cena: 416-205

    Average Votes through 5 rounds (Wrestler/Opponent)
    Undertaker: 84.4-27.6
    Thesz: 67.2-33.6
    Rock: 77.8-26
    Cena: 83.2-41

    Margin of victory through 5 rounds
    Undertaker: 56.8
    Thesz 33.6
    Rock: 51.8
    Cena: 42.2

    Percentage of votes cast for/against through 5 rounds (approximate)
    Undertaker: 3.05:1
    Thesz: 2.00:1
    Rock: 2.99:1
    Cena: 2.03:1

    Looking at all of this, it appears that based on the raw data, we are headed towards an Undertaker/Rock final, with a very slight edge in support towards the Undertaker. Obviously a lot can change depending on the strength of the arguments for Round 6, but statistically speaking, Undertaker should be the slight favorite to be crowned the 2012 Wrestlezone Tournament champion.
     
    #1
  2. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Hexagonal Hedonist

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    1,522
    Likes Received:
    975
    I don't think the data suggests that, at least not based on this. Small sample size leaves a lot to be desired here and more importantly people haven't had to choose between any of these guys yet. Since there is nothing stopping people from voting for all 4 up until this point and the results of the most recent round were relatively similar, I'd say the data suggests this thing is wide open. Votes for is likely more telling anyway. There just isn't a meaningful difference between Cena and Taker vote for totals.
     
    #2
  3. Davi323

    Davi323 semi-retired from WZ

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2007
    Messages:
    2,281
    Likes Received:
    703
    If you just look at the total votes for and averages for, yeah, the differences are statistically insignificant. But, when you take into consideration how many people voted total, including the people that voted for whoever Undertaker or Cena was facing, the Undertaker has a clear advantage. Much larger margin of victory, and a 3-1 advantage versus a 2-1 voting advantage. Basically, so far, In all contests involving the Undertaker, he has received 75% of the total votes cast, while in all contests involving John Cena, he has received about 66% of all votes cast. That's why I think Undertaker probably has the slight edge. Doesn't mean I am voting for the Undertaker personally, I am actually leaning towards Cena, I just looking at the numbers for what they are, and I took all 4 factors into consideration.
     
    #3
    Mustang Sally likes this.
  4. Poop Master Flex

    Poop Master Flex Mid-Card Championship Winner

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2008
    Messages:
    1,974
    Likes Received:
    863
    I have a feeling Cena will be going to the finals with an upset victory of Undertaker (based on the data that is). I have no idea who I will vote for in that match, I like Undertaker more but Cena's success and his longevity as THE GUY cannot be ignored.

    Thesz vs. Rock will be easier to decide unless a stipulation sways to Thesz's advantage greatly I just don't see him winning that match. As great as Thesz is he's no Rock. Straight up The Rock will have a much longer lasting impact on wrestling than Thesz and that's no knock against Thesz, his roots in wrestling go very deep.

    Right now I think the WM28 main event is gonna be the finals of this years tourny.
     
    #4
  5. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Hexagonal Hedonist

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    1,522
    Likes Received:
    975
    If they had faced the same wrestlers then this might be significant but since they didn't, it isn't really. The reason I suggested votes for matters most is that is how most people casts their votes. For the votes against to be relevant you would need to show that the only reason that vote was cast was to be against one of the 4 left and that they weren't voting against say both Cena and Taker. That seems to be to be a really small subset of the voters to the point it may be completely irrelevant.

    To illustrate the point, heading into the Hogan(317-70) vs Cena(333-132) match you would suggest Hogan receiving 82% of the votes cast would give him an advantage on Cena only getting 72%. Instead Cena got 83 votes (and won), which was pretty much exactly his average of votes for up until that point.
     
    #5
  6. Davi323

    Davi323 semi-retired from WZ

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2007
    Messages:
    2,281
    Likes Received:
    703
    Well, it's like they say...there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

    Shit happens. A career 5.05 ERA pitcher gets a no-hitter, a Goalie with a GAA of 1.9 gives up 6 goals in one period. It happens. I was not claiming that the Undertaker will win, just that statistically, he had a very slight advantage based on voting. Stats are only as meaningful as you make them to be, and I was just having a little fun with them.

    And Hulk Hogan should have won, dammit. He is better than John Cena in every possible way in the wrestling ring.
     
    #6
  7. shattered dreams

    shattered dreams Hexagonal Hedonist

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2010
    Messages:
    1,522
    Likes Received:
    975
    I didn't take any issue with your statistics, just like in that quote, the real issue is in flawed interpretations. They were interesting to read nonetheless even if I don't think they mean what you suggest.

    Of course, but what really matters in this tournament is IWC support. Age demographics clearly did us in. GET OFF MY PORCH!
     
    #7

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "afb8e5d7348ab9e99f73cba908f10802"