NFL Draft Stock: A Curious Case of Prejudice and Perception

Papa Pillman

I've got more Ho's than Jim Duggan
Let us discuss two players who have been drafted into the NFL in the last two drafts...

Both players played their college ball at the same university under the same coaching staff, and played the same position in the same system. Both were highly productive on the field and were named as the top performer in their conference following their final season.

Player A is 6'2'', 250lbs. with 9'' hands and 33 1/8'' arms. He ran a 4.68 second 40yd-dash at his pro day and benched 21 reps at 225 lbs. while logging a 33 inch vertical leap.

Player B is 6'2'', 262 lbs. with 9 3/8" hands and 33 3/8" arms. He ran a 4.73 second 40yd-dash at his pro day and benched 19 reps at 225 lbs. while logging a 30 inch vertical leap.

Neither player has measurables that are particularly enticing to NFL teams. Both are pass rushing Defensive Ends that lack a combination of size and explosion that would present them as good candidates for positional versatility. Both are ideally suited as 4-3 ends and would struggle as ends or pass rush LBs in a 3-4 set.

What they do possess is a mountain of quality tape at the collegiate level, and productive numbers to back that tape up.

Player A had 120 tackles, 5 forced fumbles, 19 sacks, 34 tackles for a loss, and scored one defensive touchdown while recording no career INTs during his career at the amateur level.

Player B had 111 tackles, 5 forced fumbles, 18.5 sacks, 32.5 tackles for a loss, and scored two defensive touchdowns and also contributed a pair of career INTs during his career at the amateur level.


The other interesting thing to note is that both players have become far more noteworthy for a unique set of off the field circumstances that have contributed to their perception both inside and outside of NFL front office evaluating circles.

Those circumstances for Player A were due to illegal activity on his part. The activity itself is considered tepid in modern society, but the potential baggage it carries makes it a concern to NFL franchises, and the horrible timing of his arrest, just days prior to the draft, makes his questionable decision further damning. Once considered a possible top-10 pick, this players poor decision making potentially cost him, as it could be cited as a factor in his fall to the 23rd overall spot in the draft.

If you haven't figured it out, Player A is recent Broncos draft pick, and former Mizzou Tiger, Shane Ray. Ray, who was cited for marijuana possession on April 27 is the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year.

That too should lead you to be able to guess which former Mizzou teammate of Ray's fits the identity of Player B. Player B, once considered a third round prospect, saw his draft stock dwindle after a poor combine, by all indications revived his stock closer back to at least the fifth round level with an improved pro day showing, yet still managed to see himself tumble markedly during the 2014 draft, landing at pick 249 during that draft's seventh and final round; 226 spots lower than his former Tiger cohort went in this most recent addition of the draft. Player B's baggage is something that is no fault of his own, yet that baggage has ultimately been the most likely factor in derailing his prospects at the NFL level. Of course "B" is openly homosexual former SEC Defensive Player of the Year Michael Sam.

Considering similar production, similar size, similar athletic ability, similar drawbacks on the field, similar pre-draft resumes, etc. even if you clearly see Ray as the superior pass rush prospect at the pro level, it is tough to account for what could possibly be different enough between the players that could justify the six round, 226 spot gap that is the chasm between their draft day realities- that is without surmising that a systematic prejudice toward Sam's sexuality is silently playing a role in his ability to pursue his potential professional destiny.

And what makes it worse is the fact that Ray's controversy is a travesty of poor decision making and also inserts him immediately into the league's substance abuse monitoring and punishment system, making him a high risk add for any franchise who made the call to add his rights to their ledger, yet a team still pulled the trigger on him during the draft's first night- and traded up to make it happen. While Sam's "controversy" is simply being honest about who he is as a human being, while doing nothing that should hinder his future as a player in the league.

In light of the facts as presented, someone please explain to me how this set of circumstances doesn't go leaps further to illustrate a subtle level of reluctance and borderline black balling from the league as it relates to giving Sam a fair shake as a prospect(lest we not forget that he lead his drafting team, the Rams, recording 3 sacks in his lone NFL preseason, and had 11 tackles, including a team leading 6 in his final game, prior to being cut and not even getting an invite to the team's practice squad).

Tell me with a straight face that the NFL hasn't covertly penalized Sam for being a gay man, while a man who can in many ways be presented(as I have here) as his prospect doppleganger can be treated with so much more reverence in scout and evaluating circles and can manage to be as touted and ultimately rewarded as he was, despite a historically bone-headed move, and at the same time Sam seems to be positioned as, perhaps eternally, on-the-outside-looking-in at his NFL playing career(or lack thereof).

And please no one give me the "DERRRR- Ray is a way better prospect and Sam SUX" bullshit as your evaluation. I get it, the talking heads prefer Ray's talents to Sam's; but in light of all tangible facts that exist about the two men, nothing that would illustrate a 220+ pick difference in their draftability can be justified, at least outside of recognizing the influence of the elephant in the room.
 
While I would be a fool to say Sam's sexuality has had zero effect on his career, or lack thereof, in football. I would be a bigger fool to take the statistics provided at face value. I also realize that the Broncos took a chance on Ray as a value pick and a risk. It doesn't mean everyone in football had the guy on their board just that team. Plus, while he clearly has poor judgment based on his arrest, welcome to the NFL, he will fit in nicely.

But again I think the stats provided are misleading. How many years did each guy play and how many snaps did they get toward the end of their career? What other factors may have effected their pro day numbers? Is Ray as limited as this says? Can he drop in coverage? I don't think Sam could.

I leave the evaluation to the pros. I just think there is as much story here as you are making in out. Next people will be saying the only reason Tom Brady was implicated in DeflateGate is because he is gay.
 
In Ray’s case the circumstances are those that most NFL owners, managers, coaches and players are familiar in handling. Substance policies, unfavorable public displays and domestic issues plague professional sports. It has become a norm to handle these obstacles. Unfortunately the same cannot be said towards openly homosexual preferences. The hard truth is the league just wasn’t ready for it and it looks as if it will be a while before it is. It is great that in today’s world individuals can be open and proud about their identities. However, folding those lifestyles into every trend of life takes time.

I do feel Michael Sam did himself no favors as he prepared to enter the 2014 Draft. It is not that his only “controversy” was being homosexual. It was how he presented it. He allowed the public relations and aggressive gay agenda machine take over his moment. In addition to numerous moments many might find personally objectionable there was the deal with the Oprah Network. It just went too far. It became about being gay and not a talent football player. Teams were not ready to deal with the unknown. Not all of society it ready to deal with, let alone accept, this life style. It is a hard reality.

No one believes there are zero homosexuals in sports. These individuals have been there since the very beginning. Closet homosexuals, currently in the league, have spoken out on the issue and largely agree that Sam was to forward with an agenda many are not ready for.

Society has a whole still needs quite a bit of education when it comes to these “alternative” lifestyles. Those who oppose it or might not understand it are not in the wrong. That is there given right. What needs to happen is a less aggressive approach in swaying the opinions of others in the hope that one day all can be seen as equals.
 
You're making something out of nothing with misleading stats. Sam played four years in college and 52 total games. Shane Ray played just three years and 40 total games.

Sam's last year in college: 48 tackles, 19.5 for loss, and 11.5 sacks.
Ray's last year in college: 65 tackles, 22.5 for loss, and 14.5 sacks.

For more of an apples to apples comparison, look at Sam's junior season numbers compared to Ray's above: 22 tackles, 7 for loss, and 4.5 sacks. Ray's junior year numbers triple Sam's.

Guys with late round grades fall all the time. Sam was projected around the 5th round and went in the 7th. Guys like Titus Davis and Taiwan Jones were projected as 5th rounders this year and went completely undrafted. There's no story here.
 
I'm not sure how related it is to the debate regarding Michael Sam, more so about Shane Ray. To anyone who would defend Shane Ray's draft stock based on skill and not based on his legal history, we only have to look as far as the 2010 draft where Aaron Hernandez, a first round quality player, fell to the fourth round because of his risks.

And of course those risks turned out to become real when Aaron Hernandez was found guilty of homicide.

That alone proves there is merit in player's draft stock rightfully being affected by off the field situations one way or another.
 
Shane Ray's draft stock fell because of the possession charge, and rightfully so, but his talent was definitely worth taking the risk with the 23rd pick. He was a top 10 pick based on talent alone and possibly top 5. His drop was similar to Randy Moss's drop back in the 1998 draft. Now if he can have anywhere near the impact Moss had on the field, then Denver can live with a couple headaches.
 

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