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You think Scorpio would win, KB? I don't. Finlay is one tough SOB. He can take it and he can dish it out. If this were the midget-loving, happy Irishman, then Scorpio takes it. If it's the Man that Loves to Fight, Finlay wins. Finlay is crafty and smart. He'll use everything to his advantage: the ring, weapons, announce tables, even the referee. Don't forget about the shillelagh.
Finlay is a tough guy and shouldn't be counted out. He's shown himself as being able to counter any style of wrestling, from submission to power. He can ground Scorpio and do what he needs to to get the job done. Shillelagh, piledriver, anything he needed to.
All of your points are valid, except this one. He may be able to ground Scorpio, but it's not like Scorpio can't mat wrestle. In fact, he mat wrestles most of the match, to set up his high-flying stuff to finish it. I'm not going to campaign against Finlay, because he'd put up a hell of a showing here, but I will campaign for Scorpio.
Finlay's more than proven he's capable of hanging with mat wrestlers and stopping them from having effective offence. It's not pretty, but the guy has been around long enough that he has seen everything and has a way round it. Be it brawling, or picking on a body part the guy can do it.