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  #1  
Old 01-25-2011, 10:26 PM
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Default IC25 Handicaps the 2010 Royal Rumble

Home field doesn't mean too much in the NFL playoffs anymore. One of the major questions I ask myself when I created the odds you see below for the Royal Rumble - how much will Home Field mean for John Cena?

The Favorites

John Cena, 3-1. Early line had John at 3-2, but I lowered his chances. His feud with CM Punk has become really compelling TV, and unless Punk gets the WWE Title between now and Wrestlemania, John winning the Rumble doesn't make a load of sense. Still, the Rumble is in John's home town of Boston, and with The Undertaker unsure of a return, you will want a big name main eventing Wrestlemania. There is the added wrinkle of if Randy Orton beats The Miz in the Rumble title match, and an Orton / Cena fight at Wrestlemania.

John Morrison, 5-1. I like John's positioning heading into the Rumble. He put together a nice win against daniel Bryan on Raw recently, seemed to get the best of S(h)eamus, and to be honest, the Miz / Morrison match on the first Raw of 2011 was fantastic. These two could absolutely be booked well together, have the chemistry, etc. I would worry that Cena / Punk could overshadow it.

Alberto del Rio, 7-1. I don't think he's going to take it, but then again, Smackdown NEEDS legit talent. Who is Edge's challenger at Wrestlemania going to be? Dolph Ziggler again? I'm sorry but no - Ziggler right now is where Shawn Michaels was in Survivor Series 1992. Good enough to wrestle a title match on the card, even as the main event, but just as long as there's something else attractive on the card as well.

CM Punk, 8-1. This especially makes sense if Orton goes over Miz. CM Punk is red hot right now, has his New Nexus team in his corner, and has proven he can run as a major performer.

The Outside Shots

Wade Barrett, 12-1. I've been saying for a year now - and I wrote an editorial on this too - there's a unique opportunity here with a young heel and the Royal Rumble as it relates to the Undertaker. How huge would it be for a young talent like Barrett to cash in a Royal Rumble win to main event Wrestlemania - not for the WWE Title, not for the World Title, but for a chance to be the man who ends the Undertaker's streak? Wouldn't that lend an air of desperation and importance? 3 months of "Wade Barrett gave up the chance to win his first World Title at Wrestlemania because ending the Undertaker's streak means a permanent place in the history books." Then, if 'Taker isn't ready, Wade can go into a title match.

S(h)eamus, 15-1. I feel like the Irishman has lost his heat since becoming King of the Ring, which is a shame. He has the skills on the mic and a clear ring presence. He's the most dominant 2nd year superstar since Lesnar. He could make a title run against Orton work just fine. The major knock here is the idea of a potential S(h)eamus / Triple H Wrestlemania re-match. Though how great would a tag team match reuniting evolution alumni Orton and HHH vs Miz and S(h)eamus be on the Raw before Wrestlemania?

Mason Ryan, 20-1. I realize that he's a rookie, and I realize that he's not even announced as being in the match. But wouldn't this come from out of nowhere!? WWE is apparently really high on this guy, and the resemblance to Batista is downright alarming. Nobody would see this coming, which would make it really interesting. Of course, it'd also make it really tough to build Wrestlemania around.

The Big Show, 24-1. He's been a huge part of the WWE for years, and he has to be winding down his career. When we look back at him after he retires, we may well ask ourselves "how did a guy this size make it to being the final guy eliminated in the Rumble twice and never win it?" You have to factor him in, especially with his recent relevance.

Kane, 27-1. Another HUGE guy, another HUGE Rumble performer, another HUGE surprise that he's never really sniffed a win. I doubt he's in line for another major push like he was this past year, though him working with New Nexus has potential...

The Undertaker, 30-1. Just humor me. We were SURE that John Cena was out of a Rumble 2 years ago due to injuries, and his return shocked us. And Edge last year. You mean to tell me that if #40 is set to come out and that gong rings, that hundreds of thousands of fans won't go bat shit?

The Long Shots

Drew McIntyre, 50-1. My how the mighty have fallen. Wasn't this guy the chosen one? His personal life may be biting him in the ass here.

Daniel Bryan, 65-1. Lacks the mic presence to build to a major Wrestlemania payoff.

Kofi Kingston, 70-1. Not only is he the president of the Shelton Benjamin fan club, he's also a client. Could be another in a long line of ultra-athletic guys who are permanen mid carders.

Ezekiel Jackson, 80-1. No real heat yet. He got a mild pop as a face. I'm still searching for a heel reaction, and he's being overshadowed by Mason Ryan. Those two WILL lock horns on Sunday.

David Otunga, 100-1. Teasing a Nexus breakout for a long time. Won't happen this way. Would be a Wrestlemania main event on par with Taylor vs Bigelow.

The No Shots

Anyone in Nexus or Corre not named Punk, Ryan, Jackson, or Otunga, 250-1. No breakout stars yet. Gabriel and Slater could be a tag team though.

Anyone who used to be in Legacy, 350-1. "Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there...with a do-over!" DiBiase is even outside the midcards. Rhodes is barely afloat. Orton isn't in the match. Somehow, Orton has the best chance. Ouch.

The announced field (Mysterio, R-Truth, Kidd, Ryder, Primo, Henry, etc.), 500-1. Fodder for the big guns.

Yoshi Tatsu, 1000-1. How is this guy still employed if no light heavyweight division exists?!

William Regal, 2000-1. How's that retirement going, Will?

Unannounced Wild Card, 75-1. Triple H. Batista. Hell, even Sting. Maybe we're in for a treat.



The 40-man format is facinating in that it gives the young roster a chance to get PPV time. As long as they don't go to that 1-minute between entries BS they did in 1995. Was I supposed to be impressed with Shawn Michaels winning a 38-minute Rumble from the #1 spot when all guys were announced in a half-hour? Give the Rumble its time. Fans care more about counting backwards from 10 and seeing who comes out anyway. Enjoy the event, and if you'd like to discuss the Rumble match, my odds, or anything else wrestling related, please visit the forums!
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  #2  
Old 01-25-2011, 10:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishCanadian25, PHR View Post
Wade Barrett, 12-1. I've been saying for a year now - and I wrote an editorial on this too - there's a unique opportunity here with a young heel and the Royal Rumble as it relates to the Undertaker. How huge would it be for a young talent like Barrett to cash in a Royal Rumble win to main event Wrestlemania - not for the WWE Title, not for the World Title, but for a chance to be the man who ends the Undertaker's streak? Wouldn't that lend an air of desperation and importance? 3 months of "Wade Barrett gave up the chance to win his first World Title at Wrestlemania because ending the Undertaker's streak means a permanent place in the history books." Then, if 'Taker isn't ready, Wade can go into a title match.
I had the same idea...in fact I emailed Justin LaBar about it. This is what I said...

"What if Wade Barrett won the Rumble. The following week on Smackdown both champions are there while Barrett makes a decision. He says he wants a different title...he wants Undertaker's streak. Taker makes his comeback and accepts his challenge."


The fact is...I would LOVE to see Barrett do this, but as LaBar brought up (and I sort of agree) there is enough backstory with Nexus burying Undertaker at Bragging rights that Barrett doesn't need this.

HOWEVER, WWE could still turn around and add this if Taker is ready to go. They could easily have Barrett say that he tried to take out Undertaker, but he survived...so now he is coming after is pride. He is coming after the legendary WM streak.


As for a winner at RR...I would LOVE to see Morrison win it and have the WM ME as Miz/Morrison for the title. These two competitors are rising stars and as you said IC, they put on a GREAT match on the first RAW of 2011. These two are 2 of my favorite superstars and that match is enough to make me buy the PPV. WWE just needs to get Riley away from Miz.
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  #3  
Old 01-25-2011, 10:59 PM
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Great post IC, and I agree with most of it.

I still don't see anybody but John Cena taking this thing. It could be wishful thinking, but I think the WWE would love to see a John Cena-Miz main event at Wrestlemania as the payoff will be huge. The Miz has been more obnoxious than ever lately, and people will put up big money to see John Cena, who has been restored to all of his glory, take the belt off of Miz on the grandest stage of them all. That said, I say 3:1 is probably the perfect line.

I disagree with JoMo being the second best candidate though. I would give that honor to CM Punk. John Morrison has indeed been red hot, hasn't done something not worth watching in since his triple threat with Bryan and Miz, but he's nowhere near ready to main event Mania, especially if there isn't something bigger on the card, which I doubt there will be. Cena vs. Punk would be really good, but not huge. Wade Barrett vs. The Undertaker is definitely not going to be big enough, and I don't even know where they'd put Randy Orton, unless they had him and Edge face off for the World Heavyweight Championship, which while really interesting is still not enough to carry the card if they wanted a Morrison/Miz main event.

I also have a theory that Sheamus could win the Rumble. As you said he's slowed down a bit since the King of the Ring tournament win, but I think this may just be a way of making us forget about The Fiery Red Hand of Sheamus. Anyway, I think Sheamus wins and challenges Edge at Mania. This opens up Cena to either challenge Punk or Miz at Mania, frees Orton up to do whatever Cena doesn't do, or something else entirely. I think Sheamus has just about done all he can do on RAW, and he'd be the top heel on Smackdown if he went there, and they could really use a top heel with Sheamus' talents. I would actually say he is the third most likely to win besides Cena and Punk.
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Old 01-25-2011, 11:14 PM
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I agree that John Cena is the favorite to win this years' Royal Rumble. He has not been in the title scene for quite some time and it makes sense for the crowd's hero to make his triumphant return to the title scene at WrestleMania. You can have Punk winning the title at Elimination Chamber and the main event of WrestleMania becomes Punk vs Cena with Cena winning the title there. Simple straightforward booking. But the question is that does WWE want to do that?

I think it all depends on the availability of Triple H. If he is available then WWE might go with him winning the Rumble and Sheamus winning the title at Elimination Chamber and Triple H vs Sheamus being the main event of WrestleMania with Punk vs Cena facing off against each other in a gimmick match. WWE have been known to go along this route in the past. It happened as recently as last year with Jericho winning the title at EC and Edge winning the RR.

I disagree with the odds that you have placed on Morrison and Alberto Del Rio, IC. They aren't big enough names to be put in the main event of WrestleMania. If you are talking about Morrison and Del Rio having a chance to win the Rumble, then I would say that Ziggler has a better chance of winning the Rumble than either Morrison or Del Rio. Vickie will most probably be the GM of Smackdown now that Teddy Long is out and that might mean that Dolph is in line for a huge push. I would place Dolph's odds as 6-1.

And of course you have my sentimental favorite, Christian. Now we all know that WWE is not exactly high on Christian but if he is available I feel he has a chance. The heel roster of Smackdown is not really all that great; there are a lot of heels but they are mostly upper midcard heels. I feel that a Edge vs Christian face vs face encounter will do more draws than an Edge vs Ziggler or Edge vs ADR encounter. If he is available, I would say that Christian has a 30-1 odd of winning.
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  #5  
Old 01-25-2011, 11:45 PM
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Excellent job, IC. I realy agreed with all of it. One thing stood out though, and that was JoMo's odds. I swear I thought I was the only one who was giving this guy a chance at winning. Right now, he has it all: Great head of steam (momentum), over with the fans, and most importantly KEY WINS. This guy has beaten Sheamus, a former WWE Champion, and a feared presence, a few times in recent weeks, and on top of that... He's looked excellent all around. Morrison finally seems to be living up to expectations, and if he picks up a Royal Rumble win, well, I think he may just become one of the biggest stars for the WWE in the coming years. They need a guy like him to step it up, and this is their biggest opportunity to further legitimize him as a WWE Championship contender. If Miz retains and Morrison wins, they already have an angle set up! Former tag partners going at it to prove which one is better once and for all. They'd have a lot less set-up to do of he won as opposed to other guys.

Although Cena is a contender, he will not win it. It's in Boston, but that'd be too obvious. I think CM Punk is the only other guy with a chance. It all hinges on the WWE Title match, really. If Orton wins I think it'll be Punk, possibly setting up a (dreaded) triple threat at 'Mania including Cena for the WWE Title. Like I said though, if Miz retains, I'm leaning towards Morrison. The things in Punk's favor are obviously the fact that he may be the top heel aside from Miz, and he's a legitimate main eventer. The reason I think a JoMo victory is more likely, though? It'd have to be the fact that Corre and Nexus will go at it. It's a subplot. Logically, wouldn't Barrett be gunning for Punk too? Punk is more of a "marked man" in this Rumble.

Again, great article IC.
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Old 01-26-2011, 12:03 AM
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From how the Rumble was being built on Raw, it has shades of 2009 with CM Punk in Randy Orton's role. Something tells me the match will come down to Cena, Punk, and his New Nexus. The final two will likely be Punk and Cena, with Cena winning one in front of the home crowd.

As much as I'd love to see Del Rio or even Morrison win it simply because of the "accolades" of winning a 40 man Rumble, this is the WWE we are talking about here. Cena is taking this.

HHH will likely return to screw Sheamus IMO. I just don't think it would be well served to have them battle over the title so simply have HHH eliminate himself while destroying Sheamus.
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Old 01-26-2011, 12:59 AM
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IF MASON RYAN WINS, SO HELP ME GOD I WILL NEVER WATCH WWE EVER AGAIN!!!!!!!!!
He is talented but it's just too early, way too early. 20-1 odds, hmmmmm very intresting though.
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Old 01-26-2011, 01:09 AM
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First of all, IC, you continue to do great work with this here odds thread.

I only have a couple disagreements.

1. I can totally see Sheamus winning, and would in fact put him in the favorites. I know everyone is expecting Triple H to return and feud with Sheamus by eliminating him. I don't see it that way. IF Triple H returns and feuds with Sheamus, I winning one of the belts at Elimination Chamber, and then Sheamus challenging him, because he knows he can do it (in his eyes with relative ease). Then I see Sheamus doing what he says he would do and pinning Triple H at Mania (clean, in the middle of the ring).

2. Alberto Del Rio's should be more like 4-1 or 9-2. ADR is easily the top heel on Smackdown right now, and what better way to completely solidify ADR by giving him the Rumble, and having him go against Edge (or a different Face SD champ) at Mania?

3. Even though Orton isn't announced in the match, I think he has better then 250:1 odds. Actually, I could see either him or Edge (if he lost the title) getting in the Rumble. With 40 superstars in the Rumble (the biggest Royal Rumble EVER!), they might want to make sure there are some more stars in it. In fact, let me throw another name out there. THE MIZ. Lets say he loses to Orton, then manages to finagle his way into the Rumble, and win it.

4. The only injured star you have on the list is Undertaker (who definitely deserves odds, mind you). I would actually think Christian (if able to return) might have a slight shot at it (in the Longshots section). They love the return-win thing (Edge, Cena), and while Christian isn't that caliber a star, he is a return. Hell, even Evan Bourne could be considered a long-long-shot/no-shot guy. If either did return, I wouldn't be surprised if they were in the final 4, and had a very good showing (RVD returned from injury in 2006 and was final 4 to go with the 2 previously mentioned)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLoneCharles View Post
As much as I'd love to see Del Rio or even Morrison win it simply because of the "accolades" of winning a 40 man Rumble, this is the WWE we are talking about here. Cena is taking this.
You mean the WWE that gave He who Shall Not Be Named the Rumble in 2004, or Rey Fucking Mysterio the rumble in 2006 (both of them going the distance mind you), or Brock Lesnar in 2003? Just because those 2 aren't the "Superman" of WWE doesn't mean they can't win it, or they won't go that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLoneCharles View Post
HHH will likely return to screw Sheamus IMO. I just don't think it would be well served to have them battle over the title so simply have HHH eliminate himself while destroying Sheamus.
This is Triple H we're talking about. This man spent the better part of a DECADE doing everything possible (kayfabe) to make sure he had the Title, or was in the Title hunt. There's zero chance in hell he should ever eliminate himself from a WrestleMania Main Event Title Shot.

This COULD work (having Triple H eliminate Sheamus), but I think it would be in the best interest of a potential reboot to the feud if Sheamus then got back in the ring and beat the holy hell out of The Game (he's pissed he got screwed out of the Rumble), and throws him over himself, or leaves his carcass for someone else.
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Old 01-26-2011, 02:06 AM
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Great Article, while I agree with it... I dont want to see Cena win the Rumble. Sigh.

So with the increased 40 man rumble, I have a question. Has the current WWE Champion ever been in the rumble?

This is the longest shot of them all, but I sort of see the Miz Retaining, and getting into the Rumble, only to Win. Challenge Edge at WM for the WHC, for a Title Unification.

Wouldn't that be some interesting poo poo
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Old 01-26-2011, 03:49 AM
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My predictions:

Sheamus will eliminate the most people, only to be eliminated himself by a returning Triple H, leading to a HHH/Sheamus rematch at Wrestlemania.

The final 5 will be something like Cena, Morrison, Del Rio, HHH and Punk

Winner: either Cena or Punk
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